***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2012.-25.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 2.8 2.7 -0.2 47.1 46.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 2.9 2.5 2.7 0.1 51.3 49.9 1.0 2.4 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 5.3 4.6 2.6 0.0 49.6 48.8 3.2 4.7 6.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -3.5 -2.1 0.6 -0.5 42.6 43.8 -3.1 -1.3 0.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 -0.1 1.1 0.7 -0.4 44.1 44.8 0.1 1.6 3.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 -1.0 -0.7 -2.3 -1.3 30.6 33.1 -0.5 0.9 2.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 3.1 2.5 2.7 0.0 50.2 49.0 1.1 2.5 3.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -6.9 -5.3 -1.0 -0.4 44.3 44.9 -6.6 -4.7 -2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 1.0 2.5 1.3 -0.2 47.2 47.2 1.2 2.7 4.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 3.2 2.3 -0.3 -0.3 45.7 46.0 1.4 2.6 3.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 0.9 2.0 0.2 -0.4 43.8 44.5 1.2 2.5 3.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 -0.5 0.7 -0.1 -0.5 42.9 43.9 -0.2 1.2 2.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 0.4 1.1 -1.0 -0.9 36.4 38.5 0.8 2.1 3.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 3.6 3.2 1.2 0.0 50.6 49.9 1.9 3.1 4.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 1.2 2.3 1.1 -0.4 43.7 44.7 1.4 2.7 4.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 1.2 2.2 -0.3 -0.6 40.3 41.8 1.5 3.0 4.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.2 2.8 2.7 0.2 52.3 50.5 1.3 2.6 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 1.3 0.5 -1.2 -0.4 45.1 45.5 -0.3 0.8 1.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 3.1 2.6 2.7 0.1 52.0 50.5 1.1 2.5 3.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -3.9 -2.9 -3.3 -0.7 41.8 42.7 -3.7 -2.2 -0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 0.7 2.1 2.1 -0.2 46.9 46.8 1.0 2.4 3.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 2.6 2.4 2.7 0.3 54.1 52.0 0.8 2.1 3.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 2.6 2.3 2.5 0.2 52.5 51.0 0.8 2.1 3.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 2.9 2.4 0.9 -0.1 49.0 48.7 1.2 2.4 3.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 2.9 1.9 1.2 -0.4 44.6 45.0 0.9 2.3 3.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 0.3 0.9 -0.9 -0.9 35.6 38.1 0.7 2.0 3.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 0.6 2.2 2.0 -0.3 46.3 46.2 0.8 2.5 4.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 -0.4 0.7 0.8 -0.4 43.7 44.8 -0.2 1.2 2.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 0.3 -1.1 -2.1 -0.6 43.5 44.1 -2.1 -0.4 1.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 3.5 2.9 2.8 0.0 50.4 49.3 1.3 2.8 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------