***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2012.-25.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 10.4 10.0 -0.9 36.8 38.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 11.5 10.5 10.2 -0.5 42.2 43.5 9.7 11.1 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 12.2 10.7 10.3 -0.8 38.3 40.2 10.2 11.7 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 4.6 2.0 7.7 -1.4 31.3 33.9 2.2 3.9 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.4 10.1 8.3 -1.4 32.0 34.6 10.2 11.8 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 82 18 0 100 7.9 7.6 5.1 -2.6 18.5 21.6 9.2 10.7 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 11.3 10.1 10.0 -0.6 41.1 42.5 9.4 10.8 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 1.6 -0.2 6.7 -1.2 33.5 35.9 -0.2 1.1 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 12.3 10.7 9.3 -0.9 37.2 39.3 10.3 11.8 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 12.3 10.3 7.7 -1.1 34.7 36.9 10.2 11.7 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.4 10.1 8.0 -1.4 31.9 34.5 10.2 11.8 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.7 9.4 7.5 -1.4 30.9 33.8 9.6 11.1 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 9.4 9.3 6.4 -2.2 21.4 24.7 10.5 11.9 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.5 11.1 9.3 -0.8 39.5 41.2 10.5 12.0 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 11.6 9.6 8.5 -1.0 36.9 38.9 9.2 11.0 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 10.2 10.0 7.1 -1.9 25.3 28.4 10.8 12.3 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 10.8 10.1 10.0 -0.3 45.9 46.6 9.0 10.4 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.1 9.8 6.7 -1.3 32.1 34.5 9.9 11.4 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 11.6 10.5 10.4 -0.5 42.1 43.4 9.7 11.2 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.0 5.0 4.1 -1.5 29.2 31.8 5.3 6.7 8.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 12.3 10.7 9.9 -0.9 37.0 39.1 10.3 11.8 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 11.6 11.0 10.3 -0.2 47.1 47.7 9.8 11.2 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 12.2 11.0 10.4 -0.6 41.6 43.0 10.3 11.7 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 12.3 10.7 8.9 -1.0 36.6 38.7 10.4 11.8 13.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 11.6 9.8 8.5 -1.1 34.8 37.1 9.6 11.1 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 9.3 9.0 6.2 -2.1 21.8 25.4 10.0 11.5 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 11.8 10.1 9.1 -1.0 35.7 37.9 9.8 11.3 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 12.2 9.3 8.0 -1.5 31.0 33.5 9.5 11.4 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 7.4 5.1 5.6 -1.4 31.1 33.6 5.3 6.7 8.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 11.5 10.2 10.2 -0.7 40.2 41.8 9.6 11.0 12.3 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 na severu i u centralnoj, na jugu 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------