***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2012.-04.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 6.5 8.2 -1.8 33.6 35.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 9.4 8.0 8.9 -0.7 43.3 44.0 6.7 8.9 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 10.8 8.1 8.6 -1.6 35.8 37.1 7.7 10.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 -0.1 0.3 5.1 -2.6 29.6 30.8 0.9 3.4 5.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 7.0 7.2 6.2 -2.6 28.9 30.4 7.9 10.3 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 91 9 0 100 5.1 4.9 2.8 -4.2 17.1 19.0 7.5 9.7 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 9.2 7.5 8.6 -0.9 41.6 42.5 6.4 8.6 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -1.4 -1.4 4.7 -2.4 29.1 31.1 -1.0 0.7 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 11.4 8.5 7.7 -1.9 34.3 35.7 8.3 10.6 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.5 8.0 5.9 -2.2 31.4 33.1 8.2 10.5 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 7.2 7.4 5.8 -2.9 26.9 28.5 8.4 10.8 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 6.6 6.8 5.1 -2.9 25.5 27.4 7.9 10.0 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 90 10 0 100 6.3 6.1 4.3 -4.0 17.5 19.6 8.6 10.8 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 11.2 9.0 8.4 -1.2 39.3 40.5 8.0 10.5 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 10.1 6.6 6.8 -2.0 34.6 35.5 6.4 9.1 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 83 17 0 100 6.9 7.1 4.8 -3.6 21.4 23.2 8.9 11.2 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 89 11 100 8.6 8.0 9.0 -0.1 49.1 49.4 6.0 8.2 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 7.5 7.5 5.0 -2.4 29.3 31.1 8.0 10.3 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 9.7 8.1 9.1 -0.8 42.6 43.5 6.7 9.1 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 3.6 3.4 2.8 -2.3 27.9 30.2 4.0 5.8 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.2 8.1 8.3 -1.9 33.7 35.2 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 9.4 9.1 9.5 0.1 50.7 51.0 6.6 9.0 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 10.4 8.7 9.2 -0.9 41.6 42.6 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.6 8.5 7.3 -1.9 33.9 35.4 8.4 10.7 12.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 6.3 6.5 6.5 -2.3 30.6 32.0 6.8 9.2 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 88 12 0 100 6.4 6.0 3.7 -3.7 16.5 19.1 8.3 10.3 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 10.6 7.1 7.2 -2.0 31.7 33.1 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 5.7 6.1 5.6 -2.9 28.4 29.7 7.0 9.9 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 3.6 3.6 4.1 -2.4 28.8 30.7 4.1 6.1 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 9.6 7.7 8.7 -1.1 40.0 40.9 6.8 9.0 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------