***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2012.-18.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 11.0 10.6 -0.4 45.6 45.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 12.8 11.8 10.6 -0.3 47.3 47.2 10.4 12.1 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.0 10.9 -0.3 46.9 47.0 10.5 12.3 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 4.9 3.1 8.6 -0.9 41.7 42.9 2.0 4.1 6.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.0 11.5 9.1 -0.7 43.1 44.2 10.4 12.3 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 8.6 9.2 5.9 -1.9 32.2 35.0 9.2 11.1 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 12.5 11.4 10.4 -0.3 46.5 46.6 10.0 11.7 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 2.1 0.8 7.5 -0.5 44.9 45.8 -0.5 1.3 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 12.8 11.8 9.8 -0.4 46.6 47.1 10.3 12.1 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.9 11.6 8.4 -0.5 45.1 45.9 10.2 12.1 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.9 11.5 8.9 -0.6 44.3 45.4 10.2 12.2 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 12.4 10.8 8.4 -0.6 44.1 45.3 9.6 11.5 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 10.2 11.0 7.1 -1.4 36.3 38.9 10.6 12.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.4 12.4 9.7 -0.3 47.3 47.4 10.7 12.7 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 12.3 11.0 9.2 -0.5 45.3 46.0 9.5 11.6 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 13.6 11.7 8.0 -1.1 39.4 41.4 11.0 12.8 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.0 11.1 10.4 -0.2 48.3 48.0 9.6 11.3 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.8 11.3 7.4 -0.7 43.3 44.4 10.1 12.0 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.8 11.8 10.8 -0.2 47.7 47.6 10.3 12.1 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.2 6.4 4.6 -1.0 40.3 41.8 5.6 7.4 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 13.0 11.9 10.4 -0.4 46.4 46.8 10.5 12.3 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 13.0 12.2 10.6 -0.1 49.2 48.6 10.5 12.3 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 13.3 12.3 10.9 -0.2 48.1 48.0 10.7 12.5 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.1 9.5 -0.4 46.4 46.8 10.6 12.4 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 12.6 11.2 9.1 -0.6 44.4 45.0 9.9 11.8 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 9.7 10.7 7.0 -1.3 36.5 39.3 10.3 12.1 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 9.8 11.4 9.7 -0.5 44.7 45.2 10.1 11.9 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 12.7 10.9 8.9 -0.8 42.2 43.5 9.7 11.9 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 4.9 6.3 6.2 -0.8 42.5 43.7 5.2 7.2 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 12.6 11.5 10.7 -0.3 46.7 46.8 10.1 11.8 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------