***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2012.-25.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 11.4 11.8 -0.6 43.3 44.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 11.2 12.8 11.7 -0.6 42.6 44.0 11.8 13.5 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 11.7 13.4 11.9 -0.6 43.8 45.1 12.2 14.1 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 3.0 5.2 10.2 -0.6 44.1 45.5 3.6 6.0 8.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 11.6 13.5 10.5 -0.6 44.2 45.6 12.1 14.2 16.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 9.8 10.6 7.2 -1.8 33.0 36.0 10.6 12.9 15.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 10.9 12.5 11.5 -0.6 42.6 44.0 11.6 13.2 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -0.2 1.4 8.6 -0.7 42.8 44.1 0.2 2.3 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 11.5 13.5 10.9 -0.5 44.8 46.0 12.0 14.1 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 11.2 13.0 9.4 -0.8 42.7 44.2 11.7 13.9 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 11.3 13.3 10.1 -0.6 44.4 45.6 11.8 14.0 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 10.5 12.3 9.6 -0.6 43.6 44.9 10.9 13.2 15.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 11.1 12.3 8.4 -1.3 36.8 39.4 11.8 14.0 16.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 11.7 13.5 10.7 -0.7 43.1 44.6 12.4 14.3 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 10.9 13.0 10.6 -0.4 45.6 46.6 11.3 13.5 15.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 11.6 13.3 9.4 -0.9 41.1 42.9 12.2 14.4 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 10.5 11.9 11.4 -0.6 42.6 44.0 11.0 12.5 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 10.8 12.2 8.3 -1.1 40.0 41.9 11.3 13.5 15.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 11.3 13.0 11.8 -0.6 42.9 44.3 12.0 13.7 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.5 6.5 5.4 -1.5 35.9 38.0 6.1 8.3 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 11.6 13.5 11.6 -0.6 44.4 45.6 12.2 14.2 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 11.3 12.9 11.6 -0.6 42.8 44.2 11.9 13.6 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 11.8 13.4 11.9 -0.6 43.5 44.8 12.3 14.1 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 11.4 13.3 10.5 -0.7 43.4 44.8 12.0 14.1 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 11.3 13.0 10.4 -0.6 43.3 44.8 11.9 13.7 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 10.4 11.7 8.3 -1.2 37.5 39.8 11.1 13.3 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 11.3 13.0 10.9 -0.7 42.7 44.3 11.9 13.8 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 11.1 13.2 10.4 -0.6 44.4 45.6 11.6 14.0 16.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 5.7 7.1 7.1 -1.2 38.9 40.9 6.2 8.5 10.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 11.1 12.7 11.8 -0.6 42.8 44.2 11.7 13.4 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------