***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2012.-25.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 27.3 39.8 90.7 48.1 46.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 28.6 21.9 39.2 89.0 47.1 45.7 14.7 23.5 34.6 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 24.3 31.9 39.5 88.6 45.6 44.0 24.0 34.8 47.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 25.8 30.6 41.4 82.5 39.5 38.7 27.5 35.8 44.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 23.6 30.0 43.7 87.0 43.2 42.2 24.5 34.0 44.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 18.5 22.2 48.2 82.9 38.9 38.5 19.5 27.7 37.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 26.3 21.8 39.7 90.2 48.6 46.9 15.2 22.5 31.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 49.4 57.1 47.8 88.3 43.8 42.9 50.2 61.0 72.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 34.6 28.9 46.0 92.4 48.2 46.1 21.3 29.9 39.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 44.7 37.9 49.5 92.4 47.8 45.9 29.5 39.2 50.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 21.3 28.1 42.3 87.0 43.2 42.4 22.2 32.3 44.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 23.1 27.9 40.9 84.4 40.8 40.5 24.1 32.7 42.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 22.9 26.5 45.1 82.8 38.5 39.0 23.8 32.6 42.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 55.1 43.3 48.0 88.1 44.2 43.0 34.8 48.0 62.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 15.5 18.3 34.2 73.6 34.0 33.8 17.8 29.0 43.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 22.4 25.7 42.5 82.6 38.6 38.8 23.2 30.9 39.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 25.8 22.6 38.6 91.7 50.4 48.1 15.4 22.4 30.8 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 25.1 32.8 54.3 91.8 46.9 45.2 25.8 34.5 44.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 34.4 26.1 39.0 87.9 45.6 44.5 19.3 28.9 40.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 26.9 32.0 61.8 87.7 42.2 41.9 27.5 36.2 45.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 35.6 29.8 42.4 92.4 48.6 46.3 21.5 30.4 40.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 28.7 24.1 39.7 91.9 49.6 47.7 16.2 24.2 34.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 33.5 26.2 40.0 86.3 43.5 42.7 21.3 29.3 38.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 30.5 39.4 47.0 89.2 45.3 43.6 31.0 42.7 56.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 32.9 26.6 47.4 91.4 48.0 45.6 18.9 27.6 38.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 18.1 19.7 43.2 78.1 34.7 35.9 19.0 26.8 35.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 30.3 25.7 45.6 92.3 49.3 47.1 18.0 26.0 35.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 17.1 20.5 37.8 77.6 36.2 35.9 18.9 27.4 37.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 42.9 53.4 57.7 90.4 45.6 44.3 44.0 56.8 71.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 29.9 22.6 39.0 88.3 46.2 44.9 15.9 24.6 35.6 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 na severu 0.6-0.7, na jugu 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------