***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2012.-04.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 5.2 6.9 67.4 47.5 41.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.4 5.3 5.5 56.1 38.8 34.5 4.4 7.5 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.0 6.7 6.8 66.6 46.2 40.6 4.2 7.6 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.0 6.8 7.3 69.5 46.2 41.4 4.3 7.7 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.9 8.0 8.2 77.2 50.7 44.3 4.7 7.8 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 8.0 6.6 8.5 76.4 51.4 44.5 3.8 6.3 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.2 5.2 5.6 57.7 41.4 37.1 3.9 6.8 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.0 11.6 8.2 70.8 46.7 40.9 7.7 12.6 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.6 7.0 8.4 78.0 51.4 44.7 4.0 6.7 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.5 8.1 9.2 79.5 51.9 45.3 4.7 7.7 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 6.9 5.7 7.7 74.8 50.4 44.0 3.4 5.6 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.6 6.3 6.8 65.9 44.9 39.0 4.5 7.2 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 8.3 7.0 8.6 76.4 50.4 44.5 4.3 6.9 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 5.4 7.3 7.3 58.6 39.1 34.2 5.7 10.8 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 3.0 3.3 4.1 41.4 31.9 28.1 3.4 7.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.0 5.4 7.4 68.7 46.4 40.6 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.5 5.5 5.1 54.3 39.9 35.4 4.5 7.0 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 9.4 7.1 9.2 71.9 48.0 42.2 4.6 7.5 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.7 5.6 5.6 56.1 39.2 34.6 4.6 7.8 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 5.1 6.6 8.6 58.0 39.9 35.7 5.3 8.8 13.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.6 7.4 7.7 74.5 50.2 43.7 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 4.4 5.2 5.0 50.4 35.8 31.7 4.8 7.7 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.9 4.8 6.1 56.5 40.1 35.3 3.7 6.6 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.9 7.3 8.0 66.9 45.2 39.8 4.9 8.4 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 8.8 7.5 9.0 78.5 52.5 46.9 3.5 6.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.4 4.8 7.0 59.7 42.2 37.6 3.3 6.3 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 8.1 6.4 8.4 74.6 50.4 45.2 3.4 6.4 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.9 3.6 5.7 55.7 38.8 34.2 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 6.9 9.6 9.1 65.5 43.9 38.9 7.0 11.4 17.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.4 5.7 5.8 59.4 41.5 36.7 4.2 7.5 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------