***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2012.-18.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 3.4 11.8 89.6 56.1 48.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.8 12.0 92.9 58.0 49.1 1.9 3.6 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.1 7.1 11.8 90.5 56.3 48.6 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.2 6.6 11.8 77.4 48.9 43.0 4.0 6.8 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.0 7.1 12.8 85.3 52.7 45.9 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.7 5.2 13.8 80.8 50.7 42.8 2.6 5.0 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 3.9 3.8 12.1 92.8 58.4 50.0 1.4 2.8 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 7.6 13.3 14.0 90.1 54.5 46.4 7.8 12.0 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.1 8.7 13.6 92.7 56.7 48.6 4.1 7.2 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 5.3 10.8 14.4 93.1 56.2 47.9 5.3 9.1 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 4.1 8.7 12.2 87.4 54.2 46.3 4.0 7.6 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.1 7.7 11.9 84.9 52.9 45.3 4.0 7.0 11.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.3 6.3 13.0 82.0 51.3 43.9 3.4 6.1 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.2 8.4 13.8 87.5 54.8 48.0 3.9 7.4 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.3 3.9 9.9 71.7 47.3 40.6 1.8 4.4 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.6 6.5 12.3 82.4 52.0 44.5 3.5 6.1 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 4.2 4.6 12.0 96.3 60.7 51.4 1.7 3.3 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.3 8.7 15.8 92.8 55.7 47.9 4.2 7.4 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.8 11.9 92.1 57.7 48.9 1.9 4.4 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 3.6 7.3 19.1 95.2 56.5 47.7 3.6 6.1 9.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.4 7.4 12.8 93.5 57.6 49.3 3.4 5.9 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.7 5.4 12.7 100.6 62.6 52.9 1.7 3.5 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.4 5.0 11.9 88.6 56.1 48.0 2.2 4.1 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.5 9.5 13.5 89.6 55.0 47.9 4.3 8.1 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.2 13.8 87.7 54.2 47.9 2.5 4.5 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 2.8 4.8 12.5 78.1 50.2 44.1 2.5 4.8 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 5.7 5.2 13.2 89.9 56.1 49.2 2.3 4.2 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.5 4.3 10.7 74.8 48.8 42.2 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 6.7 13.7 17.0 93.4 55.8 48.0 6.5 11.5 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.1 4.7 11.9 91.2 57.0 48.7 1.8 3.6 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------