***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2012.-25.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 8.7 12.0 138.1 74.9 63.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 9.9 11.4 11.6 136.6 74.5 63.5 2.4 4.9 8.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 12.6 13.7 11.8 127.9 72.2 61.4 2.9 6.2 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 7.9 9.6 12.1 109.8 66.1 55.4 4.2 6.6 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 6.9 9.0 12.6 109.8 66.2 56.7 2.5 5.1 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.9 12.9 93.2 59.3 50.0 2.6 5.0 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 9.5 10.7 11.7 136.4 74.4 63.3 2.1 4.4 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 14.2 17.1 13.2 105.6 64.3 55.6 6.4 11.4 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 6.0 8.2 12.9 113.7 67.7 58.3 2.3 4.6 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 7.4 10.2 13.7 110.6 66.4 57.7 2.3 5.4 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.1 9.9 12.1 105.2 64.7 55.5 2.6 5.7 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.9 9.1 11.3 102.1 63.1 53.8 2.8 5.8 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.1 8.9 12.4 98.3 61.5 52.4 3.2 6.1 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 11.8 17.8 14.8 127.9 72.0 61.9 5.4 9.6 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 7.0 8.7 10.1 102.4 64.2 51.4 2.4 5.1 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.5 7.4 12.2 101.2 63.0 53.7 2.5 4.8 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 10.8 12.5 11.4 142.3 75.9 64.0 3.0 5.6 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 7.6 10.5 15.5 115.3 67.9 59.0 3.3 6.1 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 11.8 13.6 11.7 135.6 74.2 63.2 2.4 5.5 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 8.9 12.5 17.8 112.2 66.6 57.6 3.3 6.9 12.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 9.2 9.6 12.0 123.0 70.7 60.5 2.6 5.0 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 11.7 14.5 12.3 150.7 77.9 66.3 3.3 6.1 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 8.0 13.6 12.3 130.8 72.9 62.1 3.0 6.1 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 9.8 14.8 14.0 120.7 69.8 60.0 4.0 7.8 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 9.3 10.2 13.9 131.2 73.0 61.9 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.2 11.9 93.7 59.2 50.6 2.2 4.5 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 9.1 10.5 13.5 138.1 74.9 63.6 2.5 4.7 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.5 6.7 11.1 102.2 63.7 52.8 2.0 4.1 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 13.4 19.0 16.7 117.0 68.5 59.7 5.4 10.4 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 9.5 11.0 11.6 134.7 74.0 62.9 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------