***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.03.2017.-12.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 0.4 1.5 2.1 1.4 64.4 62.0 -1.9 -0.1 1.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 0.5 1.3 2.0 1.2 63.9 61.2 -1.8 0.0 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 2.7 3.7 2.3 1.4 65.4 63.1 0.6 2.2 3.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 -3.8 -2.3 -0.1 1.7 67.6 65.5 -6.0 -4.2 -2.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 47 53 100 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.8 67.8 65.7 -2.2 -0.7 0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 -0.1 0.0 -2.0 1.9 69.5 67.0 -3.2 -1.7 -0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 0.6 1.3 1.9 1.1 62.7 60.2 -1.5 0.1 1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 -4.9 -4.7 -1.6 2.2 71.1 69.1 -9.1 -7.1 -5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 1.9 2.1 0.7 1.9 69.6 67.4 -1.0 0.4 1.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 1.8 2.0 -0.8 2.1 70.4 68.3 -1.0 0.3 1.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 1.5 1.7 0.0 2.0 70.3 68.4 -1.3 0.1 1.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 0.2 0.4 -0.8 2.1 69.8 68.1 -2.7 -1.3 0.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 0.9 1.0 -1.1 1.8 68.1 65.9 -1.6 -0.4 0.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 2.2 2.4 0.5 1.8 68.7 66.6 -0.7 0.8 2.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 2.1 2.2 1.0 1.7 68.8 66.7 -0.8 0.6 2.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 2.1 2.1 -0.7 1.9 68.7 66.7 -0.8 0.6 1.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 0.9 1.6 1.9 1.1 63.1 60.5 -1.2 0.4 1.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 -0.2 -0.1 -1.3 2.1 70.3 68.2 -3.1 -1.8 -0.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 0.6 1.6 2.0 1.3 64.9 62.2 -1.6 0.1 1.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 -3.0 -2.8 -3.1 2.0 69.1 66.7 -6.6 -4.8 -3.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 44 56 100 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.7 67.4 65.0 -1.5 0.0 1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 0.5 1.3 1.9 1.2 64.6 61.9 -1.6 0.0 1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 0.2 1.3 1.7 1.4 66.0 63.5 -1.9 -0.2 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 1.6 1.7 0.5 1.9 69.7 67.5 -1.3 0.1 1.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 0.3 1.4 1.2 1.6 65.7 63.5 -1.6 0.0 1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 1.1 1.0 -1.5 1.7 67.2 65.2 -1.8 -0.4 0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 0.6 1.7 1.7 1.4 64.3 62.0 -1.7 0.1 1.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 0.3 0.4 0.2 1.7 68.0 65.7 -2.4 -1.1 0.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 -0.8 -0.7 -2.2 2.1 70.1 68.1 -4.7 -2.9 -1.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 0.9 1.8 2.0 1.2 63.6 61.1 -1.4 0.4 2.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------