***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.03.2017.-26.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 4.4 4.3 3.9 1.3 68.3 64.4 1.2 2.7 4.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 2.9 3.5 3.5 0.9 63.1 61.1 1.0 2.4 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 6.2 6.1 3.7 1.0 66.1 63.7 3.2 4.7 6.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.3 69.2 65.4 -3.1 -1.3 0.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 3.5 3.2 1.3 1.3 68.3 65.2 0.1 1.6 3.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 2.6 2.4 -0.9 1.3 68.1 64.9 -0.5 0.9 2.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 3.0 3.6 3.5 0.9 63.0 60.6 1.1 2.5 3.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 -2.2 -2.8 -1.0 1.2 66.4 63.9 -6.6 -4.7 -2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 4.5 4.2 1.6 1.2 67.4 64.6 1.2 2.7 4.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 4.2 3.8 -0.1 1.1 66.2 63.7 1.4 2.6 3.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 4.1 3.9 0.5 1.3 68.5 65.7 1.2 2.5 3.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 3.0 2.8 -0.1 1.3 68.3 65.4 -0.2 1.2 2.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 3.7 3.5 -0.5 1.2 67.7 64.3 0.8 2.1 3.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 4.6 4.1 1.4 0.9 63.7 62.0 1.9 3.1 4.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 4.3 4.2 2.1 1.2 68.7 64.5 1.4 2.7 4.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 4.7 4.5 0.1 1.3 68.8 65.6 1.5 3.0 4.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 3.1 3.4 3.3 0.7 60.7 59.0 1.3 2.6 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 2.2 1.8 -0.9 1.0 64.7 62.6 -0.3 0.8 1.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 3.0 3.6 3.4 0.9 63.6 61.8 1.1 2.5 3.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 -0.4 -1.0 -2.9 1.0 62.9 60.8 -3.7 -2.2 -0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 3.9 3.8 3.0 1.2 67.5 64.5 1.0 2.4 3.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 2.5 2.9 3.1 0.7 61.1 60.0 0.8 2.1 3.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 3.4 3.1 3.2 0.9 64.1 62.5 0.8 2.1 3.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 3.9 3.4 1.1 1.0 64.4 62.9 1.2 2.4 3.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 3.9 4.0 2.6 1.4 69.3 65.3 0.9 2.3 3.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 3.6 3.3 -0.7 1.1 67.0 64.3 0.7 2.0 3.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 4.3 4.4 3.4 1.4 68.5 64.5 0.8 2.5 4.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 2.9 2.8 1.2 1.3 69.1 65.0 -0.2 1.2 2.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 1.6 0.9 -1.5 1.0 64.1 62.0 -2.1 -0.4 1.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 4.4 4.1 3.6 1.0 64.4 62.1 1.3 2.8 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------