***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2017.-05.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 12.6 12.6 11.7 1.9 69.9 68.9 7.3 9.7 12.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 11.5 11.7 11.9 1.9 71.1 70.1 6.7 8.9 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 12.8 13.1 12.4 2.2 71.4 70.3 7.7 10.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 46 54 100 5.7 5.6 8.5 1.6 65.4 64.5 0.9 3.4 5.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 13.0 13.3 10.6 2.1 70.6 69.2 7.9 10.3 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 12.0 12.1 8.5 1.8 68.5 66.9 7.5 9.7 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 11.3 11.4 11.6 1.8 70.7 69.7 6.4 8.6 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 2.3 2.5 8.8 1.8 68.5 66.9 -1.0 0.7 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 13.4 13.7 11.8 2.3 71.9 70.6 8.3 10.6 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 13.0 13.1 10.0 2.0 68.8 67.3 8.2 10.5 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 13.4 13.8 11.1 2.2 70.9 69.5 8.4 10.8 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 12.2 12.5 9.7 2.0 70.3 68.8 7.9 10.0 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 13.0 13.0 10.2 1.7 67.0 65.7 8.6 10.8 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 13.2 13.5 11.9 2.2 70.5 69.2 8.0 10.5 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 9.7 11.3 10.4 1.4 63.9 63.2 6.4 9.1 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 13.7 14.0 10.3 2.1 70.3 68.9 8.9 11.2 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 10.8 10.9 11.4 1.8 70.8 69.8 6.0 8.2 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 12.6 12.6 9.2 1.8 67.4 66.2 8.0 10.3 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 11.9 12.2 12.1 2.0 71.7 70.7 6.7 9.1 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 48 52 100 7.4 7.3 6.7 1.3 64.5 63.2 4.0 5.8 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 13.1 13.3 12.4 2.2 71.2 70.0 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 11.9 12.0 11.8 1.9 71.1 70.0 6.6 9.0 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 12.5 12.9 12.4 2.2 71.9 70.8 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 13.4 13.5 11.7 2.1 70.1 68.9 8.4 10.7 12.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 11.9 11.9 10.7 1.9 69.1 68.0 6.8 9.2 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 12.2 12.3 8.3 1.5 67.6 66.1 8.3 10.3 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 12.2 12.2 11.1 1.9 69.6 68.6 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 10.6 12.4 9.4 1.5 64.2 63.2 7.0 9.9 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 8.2 8.1 8.4 1.7 66.6 65.3 4.1 6.1 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 11.6 11.9 11.9 2.0 71.2 70.2 6.8 9.0 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------