***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.03.2017.-12.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 10.1 11.5 11.5 1.5 65.2 62.1 7.0 9.4 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 10.6 11.9 11.5 1.5 65.3 62.1 7.7 9.9 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 11.0 12.2 11.8 1.5 64.2 61.2 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 2.9 4.1 8.9 1.7 64.9 61.7 -0.1 2.2 4.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 11.1 12.3 10.2 1.6 64.6 61.6 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 9.7 10.7 8.2 1.5 63.1 60.2 6.8 9.0 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 10.3 11.6 11.4 1.4 65.5 62.4 7.4 9.6 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 0.6 1.9 8.8 1.7 65.5 62.2 -2.1 0.0 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 11.0 12.3 11.0 1.6 64.9 61.7 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 11.1 12.3 9.6 1.6 64.6 61.4 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 11.0 12.3 10.4 1.7 64.9 61.8 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 10.4 11.8 9.5 1.7 65.7 62.5 7.5 9.8 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 11.2 12.3 9.5 1.5 64.1 61.3 8.3 10.5 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 11.5 12.8 11.1 1.6 64.7 61.5 8.3 10.7 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 10.3 11.8 10.5 1.6 64.7 61.6 7.2 9.7 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 11.4 12.6 9.8 1.6 64.8 61.8 8.4 10.7 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 10.2 11.4 11.2 1.4 65.4 62.2 7.3 9.5 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 10.7 12.1 9.2 1.7 65.2 61.8 7.6 10.0 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 10.5 11.9 11.7 1.5 65.2 61.9 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 6.0 7.3 6.9 1.7 65.9 62.4 3.2 5.3 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 11.0 12.2 11.6 1.5 64.2 61.1 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 10.8 12.2 11.5 1.5 65.6 62.2 7.8 10.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 11.1 12.5 11.9 1.5 64.9 61.7 8.1 10.5 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 11.4 12.7 11.0 1.6 64.3 61.2 8.2 10.6 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 10.4 11.7 10.3 1.5 64.7 61.7 7.5 9.7 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 10.8 12.1 8.5 1.5 65.1 62.0 8.0 10.1 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 10.6 12.0 10.9 1.5 65.2 62.2 7.7 10.0 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 10.6 12.0 9.6 1.6 64.4 61.3 7.3 9.9 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 5.8 7.2 8.5 1.7 65.9 62.5 3.0 5.2 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 10.4 11.7 11.6 1.5 65.3 62.1 7.5 9.8 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------