***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.03.2017.-19.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 12.5 13.2 11.8 1.1 62.8 58.0 10.0 11.8 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 12.7 13.3 11.7 1.1 62.9 58.0 10.4 12.1 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 12.9 13.6 12.2 1.1 62.1 57.2 10.5 12.3 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 4.9 5.6 9.6 1.2 62.6 58.0 2.0 4.1 6.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 13.0 13.6 10.4 1.2 62.0 57.0 10.4 12.3 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 11.8 12.3 8.5 1.1 61.2 56.2 9.2 11.1 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 12.4 13.0 11.7 1.0 62.8 58.2 10.0 11.7 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 2.0 2.4 8.8 1.0 60.8 55.2 -0.5 1.3 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 12.8 13.4 10.8 1.2 61.8 56.8 10.3 12.1 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 12.8 13.3 9.7 1.1 61.0 55.7 10.2 12.1 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 12.9 13.4 10.1 1.1 61.2 56.0 10.2 12.2 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.7 9.7 1.0 60.5 55.1 9.6 11.5 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.1 13.5 8.9 1.0 60.3 55.1 10.6 12.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.9 10.8 1.0 60.9 56.1 10.7 12.7 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 12.3 13.1 10.4 1.2 62.8 58.8 9.5 11.6 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 13.5 14.0 9.7 1.1 61.2 56.1 11.0 12.8 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 11.9 12.5 11.5 1.0 62.4 57.7 9.6 11.3 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 12.7 13.2 9.4 1.1 61.2 55.8 10.1 12.0 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 12.7 13.4 11.9 1.1 62.7 57.7 10.3 12.1 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.2 8.7 6.7 1.1 61.5 55.1 5.6 7.4 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 12.9 13.6 11.6 1.1 62.1 57.1 10.5 12.3 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 13.0 13.6 11.6 1.0 62.3 57.5 10.5 12.3 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 13.2 13.8 12.1 1.0 62.0 57.0 10.7 12.5 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 13.1 13.6 10.8 1.1 61.0 56.2 10.6 12.4 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 12.4 13.2 10.3 1.2 63.0 58.2 9.9 11.8 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.9 13.3 8.8 1.0 61.3 55.8 10.3 12.1 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 12.5 13.3 11.2 1.2 63.1 58.3 10.1 11.9 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 12.7 13.4 9.8 1.2 62.4 58.0 9.7 11.9 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 7.9 8.5 8.5 1.1 61.7 55.9 5.2 7.2 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 12.4 13.1 11.8 1.0 62.6 57.8 10.1 11.8 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------