***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.03.2017.-26.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 14.3 14.9 13.1 1.0 61.7 59.3 12.0 13.7 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 14.1 14.5 12.8 0.9 60.5 58.4 11.8 13.5 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 14.8 15.3 13.4 0.9 60.9 59.0 12.2 14.1 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 6.8 7.4 10.8 1.0 60.4 58.1 3.6 6.0 8.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.9 15.4 11.6 1.0 60.3 58.1 12.1 14.2 16.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.8 14.7 9.9 1.3 63.7 59.6 10.6 12.9 15.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 13.8 14.2 12.8 0.8 60.4 58.2 11.6 13.2 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 3.1 3.7 10.1 1.1 61.5 58.9 0.2 2.3 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 14.9 15.4 12.0 1.0 60.4 58.3 12.0 14.1 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.8 15.3 10.9 1.1 61.1 58.7 11.7 13.9 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 14.8 15.4 11.4 1.0 61.1 58.8 11.8 14.0 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 14.0 14.7 11.0 1.1 62.0 59.5 10.9 13.2 15.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 16.3 15.7 10.4 1.2 63.2 60.0 11.8 14.0 16.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.0 15.4 12.1 0.9 59.8 58.6 12.4 14.3 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.8 11.4 0.9 60.0 57.5 11.3 13.5 15.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.9 11.0 1.1 62.0 59.2 12.2 14.4 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 13.1 13.4 12.6 0.8 59.4 57.3 11.0 12.5 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 15.8 14.9 10.6 1.1 61.2 59.0 11.3 13.5 15.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 14.3 14.8 13.1 0.9 60.6 58.7 12.0 13.7 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.7 7.7 1.0 61.1 58.2 6.1 8.3 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 14.9 15.4 12.8 1.0 60.8 58.7 12.2 14.2 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.4 12.7 0.8 59.3 57.3 11.9 13.6 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 14.7 15.2 13.3 0.9 60.6 59.0 12.3 14.1 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 14.9 15.3 12.1 1.0 60.5 58.9 12.0 14.1 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 14.4 15.0 11.5 1.0 61.7 59.2 11.9 13.7 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 15.9 15.3 10.3 1.3 65.4 61.6 11.1 13.3 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 14.4 15.0 12.4 1.0 61.9 59.3 11.9 13.8 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 14.9 15.4 11.0 1.0 60.5 57.9 11.6 14.0 16.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.4 10.0 9.7 1.1 61.1 58.9 6.2 8.5 10.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.5 12.9 0.9 60.8 58.8 11.7 13.4 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------