***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2017.-26.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 12.9 13.1 12.0 1.4 71.3 67.4 9.7 11.2 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 12.7 12.9 12.0 1.3 71.5 67.6 9.7 11.1 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 13.3 13.6 12.4 1.4 71.2 67.3 10.2 11.7 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 45 55 100 5.5 5.8 9.4 1.4 68.5 65.3 2.2 3.9 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 13.4 13.7 10.7 1.5 70.4 66.5 10.2 11.8 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 12.3 12.5 8.8 1.4 70.2 66.1 9.2 10.7 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 12.4 12.6 11.9 1.3 71.3 67.5 9.4 10.8 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 2.4 2.6 9.1 1.4 70.1 66.0 -0.2 1.1 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 13.4 13.7 11.4 1.5 71.2 67.0 10.3 11.8 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 13.3 13.6 10.0 1.4 70.0 65.9 10.2 11.7 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 13.4 13.7 10.8 1.5 70.7 66.7 10.2 11.8 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 12.7 13.0 10.0 1.4 70.8 66.7 9.6 11.1 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 13.6 13.6 9.8 1.3 69.6 65.8 10.5 11.9 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 13.6 13.9 11.5 1.4 70.7 66.6 10.5 12.0 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 12.7 12.8 10.7 1.3 67.5 64.6 9.2 11.0 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 13.9 14.1 10.2 1.5 70.7 66.9 10.8 12.3 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 11.9 12.1 11.7 1.2 70.9 66.9 9.0 10.4 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 13.0 13.2 9.6 1.4 70.1 65.9 9.9 11.4 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 12.8 13.1 12.2 1.4 71.8 67.7 9.7 11.2 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 8.1 8.3 7.0 1.3 69.3 65.1 5.3 6.7 8.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 13.4 13.6 12.1 1.5 71.0 66.9 10.3 11.8 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 12.9 13.0 11.9 1.3 71.1 66.9 9.8 11.2 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 13.3 13.6 12.4 1.4 71.9 67.5 10.3 11.7 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 13.3 13.5 11.4 1.4 70.6 66.5 10.4 11.8 13.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 12.6 12.9 10.7 1.4 70.4 66.9 9.6 11.1 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 13.1 13.3 9.0 1.3 71.0 66.8 10.0 11.5 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 12.9 13.2 11.4 1.4 71.2 67.5 9.8 11.3 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 13.3 13.4 10.0 1.3 67.8 64.7 9.5 11.4 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 8.3 8.5 8.8 1.4 70.2 66.0 5.3 6.7 8.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 12.6 12.8 12.1 1.3 71.6 67.7 9.6 11.0 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------