***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2017.-05.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 7.3 10.0 12.0 111.1 66.4 57.4 3.0 5.8 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.3 10.0 8.9 96.2 60.6 52.8 4.4 7.5 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 9.3 11.1 10.4 99.2 62.3 54.2 4.2 7.6 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 9.6 12.8 14.0 113.2 67.0 56.3 4.3 7.7 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 9.3 12.8 14.7 117.0 68.4 57.7 4.7 7.8 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 7.4 10.3 14.4 118.2 68.7 56.6 3.8 6.3 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 8.5 9.6 9.3 99.1 62.0 54.2 3.9 6.8 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 15.1 15.8 13.2 93.9 59.2 51.6 7.7 12.6 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 8.1 10.6 13.4 112.2 66.8 56.9 4.0 6.7 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 9.2 10.6 14.1 102.3 62.9 53.7 4.7 7.7 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 6.7 8.3 13.4 108.3 65.1 54.3 3.4 5.6 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 8.5 9.1 11.6 94.7 59.5 51.4 4.5 7.2 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 8.0 10.8 16.3 117.7 68.4 55.2 4.3 6.9 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 13.5 13.6 12.0 89.2 57.2 51.0 5.7 10.8 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.1 13.5 11.6 110.5 67.0 52.3 3.4 7.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 7.6 10.1 14.4 111.6 66.4 54.1 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 8.1 9.5 9.2 102.0 63.2 55.8 4.5 7.0 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 8.8 9.7 14.1 96.8 60.6 53.4 4.6 7.5 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 9.5 10.0 8.8 92.1 58.9 52.0 4.6 7.8 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 10.3 11.5 16.6 97.3 60.8 54.0 5.3 8.8 13.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 9.1 12.5 13.1 113.2 67.2 57.4 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 9.1 9.6 8.8 91.7 58.6 53.0 4.8 7.7 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 7.9 8.2 9.1 89.5 57.8 51.9 3.7 6.6 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 10.2 11.0 11.8 93.4 59.6 52.5 4.9 8.4 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 8.8 13.6 15.8 124.4 70.9 60.9 3.5 6.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 7.7 10.4 14.0 110.2 65.9 55.9 3.3 6.3 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 7.9 10.9 13.4 114.8 67.6 58.6 3.4 6.4 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.8 10.3 12.8 110.5 66.4 52.8 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 13.5 14.1 14.3 92.4 58.5 52.2 7.0 11.4 17.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 9.1 10.2 9.1 95.9 60.6 53.2 4.2 7.5 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------