***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.03.2017.-12.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 6.1 6.2 10.8 87.9 58.4 49.4 2.5 4.7 7.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.9 10.0 89.6 59.1 49.1 1.8 3.6 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.1 10.7 87.7 57.4 47.9 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.3 12.3 85.9 57.2 48.0 2.9 5.8 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.1 6.1 11.8 83.7 55.6 47.3 2.0 4.8 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.2 5.6 13.1 86.6 55.7 48.0 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.0 4.1 9.9 90.1 59.7 50.2 1.4 2.9 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.2 13.9 93.8 58.6 50.2 4.6 9.1 15.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 5.8 5.2 12.1 85.3 56.3 48.7 2.1 4.2 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 7.0 7.0 13.9 93.0 59.1 50.9 2.0 4.8 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 7.1 6.9 13.2 91.1 58.6 50.3 2.3 4.9 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.6 5.7 12.6 90.0 56.9 48.3 2.3 4.5 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 8.3 7.5 13.1 87.0 56.5 48.4 3.1 6.0 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.7 8.4 14.2 87.5 55.8 48.2 2.8 6.5 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.6 5.9 11.4 85.2 58.0 46.9 2.2 4.5 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.4 7.2 12.5 89.5 58.1 48.8 3.1 5.7 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 1.5 3.7 9.8 89.9 59.4 49.2 1.4 2.7 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 6.7 5.8 13.9 88.1 55.8 48.4 2.1 4.6 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.4 10.2 88.9 58.3 47.9 2.2 4.1 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.6 16.5 90.7 56.6 49.8 2.3 4.5 7.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.0 11.0 82.0 55.2 47.4 1.8 4.0 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 3.6 3.7 10.8 93.4 60.5 49.4 1.4 2.6 4.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 5.4 4.7 10.7 85.3 55.8 45.4 1.7 3.7 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.8 7.6 13.0 87.5 56.0 48.1 2.6 5.9 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.5 5.2 11.5 80.1 54.6 46.5 2.2 4.4 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 5.2 4.5 13.0 87.3 56.0 48.9 1.7 3.6 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 6.0 5.6 11.3 85.2 56.9 48.6 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 6.8 6.4 11.9 87.1 58.1 47.6 2.4 4.8 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.1 8.3 14.7 86.6 54.3 47.9 3.1 7.0 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 5.1 5.2 10.2 90.0 59.1 49.3 2.0 3.8 6.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------