***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.03.2017.-19.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 2.8 3.6 15.4 117.3 68.8 57.5 1.5 2.3 3.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.1 6.3 12.5 109.8 66.5 55.5 1.9 3.6 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 11.7 11.6 15.8 121.5 70.1 58.4 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 8.5 11.5 18.2 119.4 69.5 57.7 4.0 6.8 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.5 11.5 18.2 118.3 69.1 57.9 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.7 9.0 18.9 114.6 67.4 56.7 2.6 5.0 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 3.9 5.0 12.2 108.7 66.3 56.0 1.4 2.8 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.5 18.8 20.0 121.2 69.9 58.2 7.8 12.0 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.1 12.5 19.0 119.3 69.3 58.4 4.1 7.2 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.5 15.7 20.5 121.0 69.8 58.5 5.3 9.1 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.1 14.0 17.9 119.8 69.5 57.8 4.0 7.6 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.1 12.4 18.1 121.7 70.1 58.4 4.0 7.0 11.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 11.1 11.1 19.8 124.8 71.1 59.7 3.4 6.1 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 9.6 13.6 20.5 122.5 70.3 59.0 3.9 7.4 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.6 10.4 17.5 124.5 71.3 56.7 1.8 4.4 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 10.7 10.7 18.4 121.7 70.0 58.4 3.5 6.1 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.4 5.0 11.2 102.5 64.1 53.8 1.7 3.3 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.6 12.9 21.6 120.4 69.5 58.5 4.2 7.4 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 6.4 8.5 13.5 114.4 67.9 56.0 1.9 4.4 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 7.7 10.1 24.6 117.7 68.6 57.6 3.6 6.1 9.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 10.7 10.7 17.7 123.4 70.6 59.1 3.4 5.9 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.0 5.8 12.1 103.9 64.5 52.9 1.7 3.5 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.4 7.7 15.4 121.5 70.0 58.1 2.2 4.1 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 15.4 15.8 19.8 124.5 70.9 59.5 4.3 8.1 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.0 8.2 18.0 119.7 69.4 58.3 2.5 4.5 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 9.0 9.6 20.0 129.5 72.5 60.3 2.5 4.8 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.6 7.4 16.0 115.3 68.1 57.5 2.3 4.2 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.1 8.7 17.7 119.7 69.7 56.7 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 20.8 19.8 22.5 118.1 68.6 57.7 6.5 11.5 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 5.1 7.0 13.5 115.0 68.2 57.5 1.8 3.6 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------