***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.03.2017.-26.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 7.8 9.1 13.1 100.4 63.0 53.1 2.7 5.7 10.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.7 7.5 11.3 96.8 62.2 53.3 2.4 4.9 8.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.6 9.7 12.6 98.7 62.3 52.4 2.9 6.2 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.1 9.9 16.4 113.7 67.3 56.1 4.2 6.6 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 6.9 8.6 15.3 107.5 64.9 54.0 2.5 5.1 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.9 9.7 18.0 121.3 69.7 57.1 2.6 5.0 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.1 6.8 11.1 96.2 61.6 53.5 2.1 4.4 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 14.5 18.4 17.4 113.6 66.8 55.5 6.4 11.4 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 6.1 7.4 15.6 106.9 64.6 54.1 2.3 4.6 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 7.6 9.9 17.4 109.6 65.3 55.0 2.3 5.4 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 7.8 10.4 15.1 111.4 66.1 54.4 2.6 5.7 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.9 10.4 15.4 114.3 67.2 55.0 2.8 5.8 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.6 11.0 17.1 118.0 68.5 55.3 3.2 6.1 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.4 13.6 17.1 101.4 62.4 52.9 5.4 9.6 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.3 10.9 16.5 121.2 70.2 56.9 2.4 5.1 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.9 8.6 16.0 116.2 67.9 55.0 2.5 4.8 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.6 10.8 91.6 59.9 52.3 3.0 5.6 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.0 9.5 18.2 107.4 64.4 54.3 3.3 6.1 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.9 8.9 11.9 98.5 62.6 53.1 2.4 5.5 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.8 12.8 22.6 114.9 67.2 55.0 3.3 6.9 12.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.6 7.8 14.2 104.4 64.1 54.2 2.6 5.0 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 7.9 8.8 12.0 97.4 61.6 53.6 3.3 6.1 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.5 9.5 13.1 99.8 62.7 52.4 3.0 6.1 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.4 11.7 15.7 101.9 62.6 52.8 4.0 7.8 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 6.3 7.8 15.8 107.7 65.3 55.2 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 6.3 8.6 16.7 119.6 69.1 56.9 2.2 4.5 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.2 7.4 14.3 103.9 64.1 53.7 2.5 4.7 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.7 8.2 16.5 120.3 69.6 56.6 2.0 4.1 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.0 17.0 19.4 109.0 65.0 54.3 5.4 10.4 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.8 7.5 11.7 97.8 62.3 52.7 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------