***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2017.-26.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 29.4 30.5 51.2 104.1 60.0 55.4 17.6 25.3 34.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 28.3 27.4 42.7 98.2 56.3 51.6 14.7 23.5 34.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 40.1 41.2 49.6 102.2 58.6 53.7 24.0 34.8 47.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 40.0 42.7 60.9 108.0 62.7 56.5 27.5 35.8 44.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 38.3 41.3 60.0 106.6 61.6 55.8 24.5 34.0 44.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 32.6 36.5 64.4 109.8 64.4 57.3 19.5 27.7 37.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 26.3 25.8 42.5 98.6 56.6 52.3 15.2 22.5 31.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 66.1 68.8 64.4 106.3 61.2 54.8 50.2 61.0 72.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 33.4 36.3 60.1 106.1 61.2 55.4 21.3 29.9 39.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 43.8 46.8 65.9 106.9 61.8 55.6 29.5 39.2 50.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 38.4 41.5 59.7 107.5 62.3 55.6 22.2 32.3 44.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 23.9 38.7 57.6 105.7 60.7 54.3 24.1 32.7 42.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 23.6 42.9 66.3 111.9 65.9 57.9 23.8 32.6 42.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 54.5 54.0 63.8 100.8 57.1 52.6 34.8 48.0 62.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 35.5 41.4 57.0 110.5 64.4 56.1 17.8 29.0 43.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 35.0 38.3 61.4 109.9 64.2 56.7 23.2 30.9 39.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 26.0 24.7 41.0 96.2 54.9 50.7 15.4 22.4 30.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 39.1 39.9 67.8 103.9 59.3 53.8 25.8 34.5 44.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 34.2 33.2 44.4 98.9 56.4 51.5 19.3 28.9 40.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 39.9 42.4 80.3 105.9 60.9 54.7 27.5 36.2 45.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 34.6 37.2 56.0 105.8 61.1 56.0 21.5 30.4 40.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 28.7 27.0 43.8 96.8 54.9 50.5 16.2 24.2 34.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 33.3 32.8 48.4 99.5 56.6 51.5 21.3 29.3 38.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 48.4 49.3 60.3 102.5 58.4 53.2 31.0 42.7 56.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 32.7 35.5 61.1 107.6 62.3 57.4 18.9 27.6 38.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 39.0 35.8 63.7 111.8 65.9 58.2 19.0 26.8 35.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 30.9 31.8 55.1 104.6 60.3 55.8 18.0 26.0 35.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 32.1 35.9 59.0 109.6 63.8 56.1 18.9 27.4 37.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 63.2 63.8 70.9 102.3 57.9 52.7 44.0 56.8 71.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 29.2 29.3 44.5 100.0 57.4 52.7 15.9 24.6 35.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------