***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.03.2016.-20.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 3.0 2.5 3.1 0.9 61.5 58.9 0.4 1.7 2.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 1.8 2.2 3.0 1.1 63.6 60.5 0.1 1.3 2.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 5.0 4.7 3.0 1.1 63.7 60.5 2.4 3.7 4.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 -0.7 -0.8 0.8 1.3 66.7 63.5 -3.9 -2.3 -0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 0.9 1.3 0.7 1.1 63.5 60.9 -0.4 0.5 1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 0.3 0.8 -1.5 1.4 65.9 63.0 -0.9 0.0 0.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 2.1 2.5 3.0 1.0 63.1 60.2 0.4 1.6 2.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -4.7 -4.5 -1.5 0.8 59.4 57.5 -6.9 -5.3 -3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 3.0 2.6 1.2 1.0 62.5 59.9 0.7 1.8 2.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 2.0 2.2 -0.5 1.0 61.2 58.8 0.7 1.6 2.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 1.6 1.9 0.1 0.9 61.7 59.8 0.4 1.3 2.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 0.6 0.8 -0.3 0.8 60.3 58.9 -0.8 0.2 1.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 1.4 1.7 -0.7 1.0 62.6 60.5 0.2 1.1 1.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 2.6 2.9 1.0 0.9 61.0 59.0 1.3 2.3 3.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 2.8 3.0 1.6 1.5 69.4 65.9 0.7 1.8 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 2.3 2.6 -0.1 1.1 63.1 61.1 1.0 1.9 2.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 2.2 2.6 2.8 1.0 63.1 60.3 0.7 1.8 2.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 0.0 0.2 -1.3 0.9 59.7 57.5 -1.2 -0.3 0.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 2.0 2.5 3.0 1.1 63.8 60.7 0.3 1.5 2.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -2.4 -2.6 -3.8 0.5 55.3 53.8 -3.9 -2.9 -1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 2.4 2.1 2.3 1.0 62.9 60.0 0.3 1.3 2.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 1.6 2.0 2.9 1.0 63.3 60.5 0.3 1.3 2.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 1.6 2.0 2.7 1.1 63.8 60.8 0.1 1.2 2.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 1.8 2.1 0.9 1.0 61.9 59.3 0.6 1.5 2.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 2.4 2.2 1.6 1.2 65.5 62.0 0.2 1.3 2.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 1.4 1.6 -0.7 0.8 60.5 59.0 0.3 1.1 1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 3.0 2.5 2.4 1.1 63.0 60.1 0.1 1.5 2.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 0.5 1.2 1.1 1.3 66.9 63.9 -0.8 0.2 1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 -0.7 -0.7 -2.3 0.7 57.4 55.7 -2.7 -1.3 0.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 2.2 2.6 3.1 1.1 63.4 60.2 0.5 1.7 2.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------