***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.03.2016.-27.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 3.9 4.6 4.5 1.0 64.1 59.8 1.9 3.4 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 3.5 3.9 4.1 0.7 61.2 57.5 1.7 3.0 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 5.8 6.4 4.2 0.9 64.2 60.1 4.1 5.3 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 -0.2 0.9 2.1 1.3 68.2 63.8 -2.1 -0.7 0.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 2.9 3.9 2.1 1.3 66.8 63.1 0.8 2.4 3.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 1.9 2.5 -0.3 1.1 64.0 61.7 0.0 1.4 2.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 3.6 4.0 4.1 0.8 61.3 57.5 1.9 3.2 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 -2.1 -2.5 0.1 1.2 64.0 61.9 -5.5 -3.9 -2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 3.8 4.6 2.6 1.2 66.1 62.4 1.9 3.3 4.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 4.6 4.4 0.9 1.3 65.2 62.4 2.0 3.3 4.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 3.5 4.3 1.5 1.2 65.5 62.6 1.8 3.1 4.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 2.2 2.9 1.2 1.2 64.6 62.3 0.3 1.7 3.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 4.0 3.8 0.6 1.1 64.6 62.0 1.2 2.6 3.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 4.0 4.4 2.3 0.9 62.3 59.4 2.4 3.6 4.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 4.6 4.7 2.7 1.3 69.3 64.4 2.1 3.3 4.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 4.0 4.9 1.2 1.2 65.5 62.6 2.2 3.6 4.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 3.7 3.8 3.9 0.7 59.8 56.3 2.1 3.2 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 2.5 2.2 0.2 1.2 63.7 61.4 0.0 1.2 2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 3.5 4.0 4.1 0.8 62.0 58.2 1.8 3.1 4.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 0.1 -0.4 -2.1 1.2 62.6 60.7 -3.1 -1.6 -0.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 3.6 4.4 3.7 1.2 65.9 61.7 1.6 3.1 4.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 3.1 3.4 4.0 0.8 61.5 57.9 1.4 2.6 3.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 3.1 3.7 3.8 0.8 62.9 59.0 1.4 2.7 3.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 3.3 3.9 2.2 1.1 63.6 60.6 1.8 3.0 4.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 3.6 4.5 2.9 1.1 65.8 61.5 1.6 3.1 4.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 3.0 3.6 0.7 1.0 64.1 61.4 1.2 2.5 3.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 4.0 4.8 3.7 1.0 64.0 59.9 1.8 3.5 5.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 3.2 3.2 2.3 1.3 68.2 63.8 0.4 1.8 3.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 1.7 1.2 -0.6 1.2 62.8 60.9 -1.3 0.2 1.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 4.0 4.5 4.3 0.8 62.2 58.3 2.2 3.5 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------