***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.03.2016.-13.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 13.0 15.2 13.2 3.7 85.0 78.1 7.8 10.0 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 13.5 15.3 12.9 3.5 83.8 77.3 8.3 10.5 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 13.6 15.6 13.2 3.6 83.4 76.7 8.6 10.8 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 5.6 7.9 11.4 4.0 85.5 78.7 0.2 2.5 4.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 13.6 15.7 11.6 3.8 84.0 76.8 8.5 10.7 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 11.9 14.1 10.3 4.2 86.6 78.2 7.2 9.1 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 13.1 15.1 12.9 3.6 85.0 78.2 8.1 10.2 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 2.9 4.3 9.8 3.4 81.6 73.9 -1.6 0.4 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 13.6 15.4 12.1 3.7 82.8 75.7 8.5 10.7 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 13.6 15.3 10.8 3.6 82.1 74.6 8.5 10.7 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 13.5 15.5 11.2 3.7 83.6 76.0 8.3 10.6 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 12.9 14.4 10.7 3.4 82.3 74.7 7.9 10.0 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 13.6 15.3 10.6 3.8 84.6 76.4 8.8 10.8 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 14.0 15.4 11.7 3.2 79.7 72.7 8.8 11.1 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 13.3 15.7 11.8 4.1 86.2 80.0 7.6 9.9 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 13.9 15.9 11.1 3.9 85.0 77.1 8.9 11.0 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 12.8 14.4 12.5 3.3 83.2 76.8 7.9 10.0 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 13.2 14.8 10.1 3.4 81.0 73.3 8.1 10.4 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 13.3 15.2 13.0 3.4 82.9 76.4 8.2 10.4 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 8.3 9.7 7.5 3.0 80.4 72.0 3.9 5.8 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 13.5 15.5 12.7 3.7 83.4 76.4 8.7 10.8 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 13.6 15.0 12.5 3.1 81.1 74.7 8.4 10.6 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 13.8 15.5 13.0 3.4 81.8 75.1 8.8 11.0 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 13.9 15.6 11.7 3.4 81.1 74.0 8.9 11.1 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 13.2 15.5 11.8 4.0 86.1 78.9 8.0 10.1 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 13.2 14.8 10.1 3.5 84.0 76.3 8.5 10.5 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 13.4 15.6 12.5 3.9 86.3 78.9 8.4 10.5 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 13.5 16.0 11.7 4.1 85.5 78.7 7.6 10.1 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 8.2 9.7 9.0 3.2 80.3 72.4 3.4 5.5 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 13.2 15.1 13.1 3.6 84.2 77.6 8.2 10.3 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------