***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.03.2016.-27.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.0 14.9 13.3 0.5 56.4 53.7 13.1 14.4 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.4 13.0 0.2 52.7 51.4 13.0 14.3 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.4 13.3 0.5 55.8 53.6 13.5 14.9 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 7.4 8.1 11.8 1.1 62.1 58.2 5.2 6.9 8.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 15.7 16.0 11.9 0.9 59.7 56.5 13.6 15.1 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 14.6 15.4 10.3 1.2 62.8 58.7 12.1 14.0 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 14.5 14.2 12.9 0.2 52.0 50.7 12.9 14.0 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 3.6 3.8 10.3 0.8 58.0 55.5 1.3 3.0 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.7 12.3 0.7 57.9 55.2 13.4 15.0 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 15.5 15.6 11.1 0.7 57.7 55.2 13.2 14.9 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 15.5 15.8 11.6 0.9 59.3 56.4 13.2 14.9 16.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 14.7 15.0 11.3 0.8 58.8 56.1 12.2 14.1 15.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 15.6 16.0 10.9 0.9 59.8 56.7 13.2 15.0 16.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 15.5 15.3 12.0 0.4 53.7 52.7 13.6 15.0 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 14.8 15.6 12.1 1.2 63.7 59.4 12.8 14.3 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 16.0 16.5 11.4 1.0 60.9 57.5 13.6 15.4 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 13.7 13.2 12.6 0.0 50.4 49.7 12.1 13.2 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 15.0 15.0 10.4 0.6 56.1 54.1 12.8 14.4 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 14.9 14.7 13.2 0.3 53.5 52.1 13.2 14.4 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.7 9.7 7.9 0.6 56.1 53.9 7.3 9.1 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 15.5 15.6 12.9 0.7 57.7 55.0 13.5 15.0 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.3 12.7 0.1 50.7 50.3 13.1 14.2 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.3 15.1 13.2 0.4 54.1 52.7 13.5 14.8 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.4 12.0 0.5 55.3 53.6 13.4 14.9 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 15.1 15.3 11.9 0.8 59.1 55.6 13.3 14.6 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 14.9 15.3 10.5 0.9 59.4 56.6 12.5 14.3 16.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 15.1 15.1 12.5 0.6 56.7 53.8 13.2 14.6 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 15.2 16.0 12.1 1.2 63.5 59.4 13.0 14.7 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 10.1 10.0 9.4 0.5 55.4 53.6 7.6 9.4 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 14.7 14.5 13.2 0.3 53.8 52.1 12.9 14.2 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------