***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.02.2016.-27.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 13.0 13.7 12.3 1.7 74.9 70.3 10.2 11.6 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 12.9 13.3 12.1 1.5 72.6 68.6 10.3 11.6 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 13.6 14.1 12.4 1.7 74.1 69.5 10.7 12.1 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 6.1 7.0 10.5 2.1 78.5 73.8 2.7 4.2 5.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 13.8 14.6 10.9 1.9 76.5 71.6 10.8 12.2 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 12.8 13.5 9.3 2.0 77.2 71.8 9.7 11.1 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 12.6 13.0 12.0 1.5 72.9 68.8 10.0 11.3 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 2.7 3.0 9.2 1.6 73.2 68.4 0.1 1.3 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 13.8 14.4 11.5 1.8 75.5 70.6 10.8 12.2 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 13.8 14.2 10.2 1.7 74.1 69.1 10.7 12.2 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 13.8 14.5 10.6 1.8 75.8 70.8 10.7 12.2 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 13.0 13.6 10.1 1.7 74.0 69.3 10.1 11.5 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 13.8 14.4 9.9 1.7 74.4 69.4 11.0 12.3 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 13.9 14.1 11.2 1.5 71.2 66.9 11.1 12.4 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 13.6 14.6 11.4 2.3 80.3 76.0 9.8 11.4 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 14.3 15.0 10.4 1.9 76.4 71.4 11.3 12.7 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 12.1 12.4 11.7 1.3 71.2 67.5 9.6 10.8 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 13.4 13.7 9.4 1.6 72.2 67.3 10.4 11.8 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 13.0 13.5 12.3 1.5 72.9 68.7 10.3 11.6 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 8.6 8.7 6.8 1.3 69.9 65.2 5.7 7.1 8.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 13.7 14.3 12.1 1.8 75.1 70.3 10.8 12.2 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 44 56 100 12.9 13.3 11.8 1.3 70.9 67.0 10.4 11.7 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 13.6 14.0 12.3 1.6 73.0 68.6 10.9 12.2 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 13.8 14.2 11.2 1.6 72.6 67.9 11.0 12.4 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 13.1 13.8 10.9 1.9 76.6 71.7 10.2 11.6 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 13.4 13.9 9.3 1.6 74.1 69.3 10.5 11.9 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 13.2 13.9 11.6 1.8 75.5 70.7 10.4 11.7 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 14.0 15.0 11.0 2.2 79.1 74.5 10.1 11.8 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 8.6 8.8 8.4 1.5 70.9 66.3 5.7 7.1 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 12.8 13.3 12.2 1.6 73.4 69.2 10.2 11.5 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------