***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.02.2016.-06.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 12.0 18.3 18.1 163.0 82.1 68.6 3.1 6.1 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 8.2 13.7 13.7 134.5 73.9 64.9 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 14.6 19.2 16.4 144.6 77.5 64.7 3.9 7.6 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 15.7 25.6 22.3 185.2 88.4 73.3 5.4 9.0 13.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 15.1 25.4 23.3 179.3 87.9 72.6 4.9 8.3 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 10.9 17.1 22.6 180.6 85.9 74.2 3.3 5.9 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 11.1 13.5 14.7 145.0 76.7 67.8 3.7 6.4 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 24.1 32.1 22.9 161.7 81.9 71.4 7.3 12.8 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 11.9 17.4 19.9 159.3 82.9 67.4 4.3 7.1 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 14.2 18.5 21.3 151.1 80.1 67.4 4.8 8.2 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 12.2 19.0 21.7 179.4 86.2 71.0 3.8 6.7 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 12.6 18.6 22.1 183.5 85.7 74.7 4.2 7.0 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 11.7 20.3 25.5 203.7 90.1 78.7 3.9 6.4 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 14.7 18.6 15.7 110.1 64.8 55.9 6.2 11.7 19.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 15.0 26.6 19.8 193.5 86.6 74.8 3.2 6.8 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 12.3 22.8 23.7 195.6 89.3 75.7 3.0 5.8 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 9.6 10.9 13.7 135.5 74.2 67.0 3.8 6.1 8.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 12.8 14.8 21.1 133.8 74.6 65.3 4.5 7.7 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 9.4 14.1 13.4 127.3 71.7 62.0 4.6 7.9 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 16.1 20.1 30.2 153.4 79.9 73.5 4.5 8.2 13.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 14.6 20.7 18.8 157.6 82.3 67.4 4.4 7.8 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 8.3 12.3 13.4 127.1 71.6 64.6 4.4 7.1 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 8.7 11.4 13.5 117.0 67.9 57.2 4.1 7.1 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 12.3 17.2 17.1 121.5 69.8 58.8 6.0 10.2 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 14.2 25.4 24.6 182.2 88.3 75.0 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 11.7 20.7 26.6 204.9 89.5 80.6 3.1 5.7 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 12.1 18.8 21.2 168.3 83.9 71.0 3.2 6.2 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 13.3 24.6 21.1 194.6 88.3 74.6 3.0 6.1 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 19.7 22.2 22.6 132.1 73.9 64.9 6.7 11.5 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 12.6 15.8 14.9 142.0 76.1 64.8 4.0 7.2 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------