***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.03.2016.-13.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 8.2 9.6 14.1 148.7 77.3 65.2 2.6 4.5 7.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 7.7 9.6 14.0 147.3 77.0 64.5 1.9 3.7 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 12.0 16.0 15.2 157.2 79.4 65.9 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 11.7 14.6 16.7 150.5 78.0 64.3 3.3 6.1 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 10.1 12.9 17.0 148.2 77.5 64.2 2.2 4.7 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 6.0 10.2 19.4 130.1 72.7 62.6 2.2 4.6 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 6.4 7.5 13.4 141.0 75.6 63.8 1.9 3.5 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 16.7 20.6 18.3 144.7 76.7 64.1 4.7 8.9 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 10.0 12.8 17.4 153.6 78.9 64.9 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 11.1 14.8 18.6 149.6 77.9 64.6 2.3 5.2 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 7.3 13.5 15.4 139.6 75.3 62.7 2.5 5.4 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 8.2 10.0 16.1 144.0 76.3 64.0 2.3 4.3 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 11.4 13.8 18.0 139.2 75.2 65.2 3.1 6.1 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 14.6 19.6 19.4 154.8 79.0 64.7 3.2 6.8 12.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 9.6 13.1 17.0 159.3 79.9 65.7 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 7.3 12.1 16.4 139.0 75.1 63.6 3.3 5.9 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 6.1 7.3 13.0 140.8 75.5 62.7 1.6 3.1 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 11.2 15.5 21.8 157.9 80.2 66.6 2.6 5.4 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 8.6 10.8 14.4 150.8 77.8 64.4 2.5 4.6 7.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 7.8 9.6 25.3 151.3 78.7 66.6 2.3 4.1 6.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 9.8 13.5 16.0 160.5 80.1 66.7 1.9 4.2 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 5.8 7.1 13.4 143.3 76.1 63.5 1.5 2.9 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 8.7 11.8 15.3 154.1 78.7 63.9 1.9 4.1 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 13.1 18.5 19.2 159.9 80.3 66.5 2.9 6.1 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 9.2 11.7 17.4 152.5 78.3 66.6 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 6.7 8.0 18.3 141.5 75.8 66.5 1.5 3.1 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 9.4 11.2 15.9 146.8 76.9 65.3 2.2 4.5 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 9.6 12.3 16.8 150.0 77.8 63.8 2.5 5.0 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 15.7 21.1 23.2 156.7 79.9 66.8 3.6 7.5 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 7.5 9.2 14.0 146.9 76.9 64.0 2.1 3.9 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------