***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.03.2016.-27.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 12.8 16.4 12.0 149.1 77.5 64.4 3.4 6.7 11.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 11.2 15.3 13.4 161.5 80.3 67.6 3.0 5.7 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 15.0 18.2 12.4 145.4 76.7 64.8 3.4 7.1 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 8.3 12.4 13.6 122.0 70.6 59.9 3.3 6.4 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 11.9 12.1 13.2 121.0 70.3 60.0 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 8.2 11.4 16.7 109.8 66.5 57.4 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 10.7 15.2 13.5 165.2 81.1 67.6 2.9 5.5 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 15.7 19.3 14.3 112.3 66.6 56.4 7.7 12.5 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 11.7 11.8 13.1 121.8 70.4 59.8 3.0 5.9 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.7 13.5 14.4 117.9 68.8 58.7 3.3 6.9 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 8.4 12.9 12.5 119.4 69.6 58.7 2.6 5.9 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.3 12.3 12.7 113.9 67.5 56.1 3.6 6.9 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.8 13.0 15.0 115.1 68.1 57.5 3.9 7.4 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 21.2 24.9 16.1 138.1 75.0 63.3 6.7 12.0 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 7.9 12.0 12.9 116.2 69.4 58.6 2.5 5.7 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 8.3 11.7 13.6 116.7 68.6 58.1 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 14.6 19.9 13.3 160.4 79.8 66.2 3.7 7.3 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.0 12.1 16.1 118.9 68.9 59.5 3.8 6.9 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 14.4 19.3 13.0 153.3 78.5 66.1 3.3 6.8 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 10.2 13.3 18.2 113.1 66.8 58.5 3.8 7.6 13.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 12.1 13.7 12.2 135.3 74.0 61.9 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 13.7 18.5 13.7 159.5 79.7 66.4 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 15.1 18.3 12.8 142.9 76.1 64.1 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 17.6 18.8 14.8 131.2 72.8 62.2 4.8 9.1 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 8.0 13.6 13.8 135.4 74.2 61.9 3.2 6.1 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 7.2 9.0 13.9 105.7 64.8 54.6 2.7 5.4 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 10.7 13.2 13.4 142.7 76.0 63.4 2.8 5.6 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 6.4 9.5 13.3 115.0 68.7 58.4 2.1 4.6 8.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.8 20.6 16.7 116.4 68.1 59.2 7.2 12.5 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 10.5 14.2 13.0 157.4 79.6 67.0 2.7 5.3 9.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------