***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.02.2016.-27.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 40.4 49.1 58.1 143.4 81.6 75.2 19.5 27.2 36.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 41.9 49.4 54.6 139.9 79.4 74.2 16.7 25.4 36.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 57.1 66.9 56.9 137.3 79.6 73.6 25.8 37.2 50.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 51.4 58.1 66.5 137.8 79.2 74.3 28.2 37.0 46.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 51.1 61.8 67.0 137.8 80.7 74.2 25.7 35.6 46.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 44.7 49.4 75.1 126.5 76.3 68.6 22.6 31.2 41.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 38.5 45.8 55.4 143.1 80.7 75.5 16.8 24.5 33.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 78.4 85.5 70.0 129.7 76.9 69.2 52.0 63.3 75.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 45.1 54.2 64.1 134.6 79.1 71.9 23.0 32.1 42.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 56.1 64.3 68.9 130.2 77.6 69.5 30.9 41.3 52.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 52.2 61.3 61.7 133.9 78.4 70.7 24.5 35.1 47.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 48.7 56.2 63.0 134.5 78.6 70.7 25.0 34.2 44.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 50.4 59.6 72.3 137.1 81.5 73.3 26.7 35.6 45.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 73.3 76.9 66.9 125.3 74.1 68.6 38.0 51.4 66.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 50.3 58.0 62.3 135.6 76.8 72.3 18.3 29.7 44.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 46.2 54.7 66.2 136.2 80.4 72.5 23.8 32.5 42.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 39.4 45.3 53.2 139.3 78.4 73.0 17.4 25.3 34.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 50.8 57.2 75.7 128.5 77.4 69.3 26.7 36.3 47.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 49.1 55.2 54.1 135.9 77.9 72.6 22.3 32.0 43.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 50.5 56.6 93.7 130.5 78.2 71.2 28.7 37.5 46.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 48.5 58.7 60.3 139.6 81.0 74.3 23.2 32.7 43.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 40.0 46.3 54.0 136.7 77.6 71.6 18.7 26.9 36.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 45.5 48.0 55.1 129.8 75.5 70.2 24.1 32.1 41.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 65.4 71.5 66.1 127.9 76.1 69.3 34.2 46.4 60.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 46.5 58.0 72.1 146.4 84.5 78.7 21.4 29.9 40.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 42.4 50.7 72.2 135.6 80.8 73.9 19.7 28.0 37.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 43.8 53.0 66.7 144.3 82.9 76.8 20.0 28.2 37.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 43.8 49.9 63.8 134.3 77.2 71.9 19.4 28.4 39.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 80.0 87.9 80.4 127.2 76.6 68.7 45.4 59.1 74.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 42.2 50.6 55.3 139.8 79.7 74.3 17.4 26.4 37.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------