***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.03.2021.-07.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 95 5 100 9.7 10.3 10.2 0.7 56.0 55.7 7.0 9.5 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 93 7 100 9.4 10.0 10.3 0.8 56.7 56.3 7.0 9.2 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 93 7 100 10.3 10.3 10.4 0.3 52.6 52.4 7.6 10.0 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 92 8 100 3.3 4.4 7.7 1.2 59.9 59.4 0.5 3.0 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 93 7 100 10.5 10.7 8.9 0.4 53.1 53.0 7.8 10.2 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 10.1 9.3 6.7 -0.3 47.0 47.2 7.4 9.7 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 93 7 100 9.1 9.6 10.0 0.7 56.1 55.7 6.7 8.8 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 0.8 0.9 7.7 0.5 54.6 54.2 -1.6 0.4 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 92 8 100 10.8 10.8 10.0 0.3 52.9 52.8 8.1 10.4 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 10.9 10.7 8.4 0.2 51.4 51.4 8.2 10.5 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 92 8 100 11.0 10.7 9.2 0.0 50.2 50.2 8.2 10.6 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 89 11 100 10.5 10.4 8.3 0.3 53.4 53.1 7.8 10.0 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 90 10 100 11.2 10.4 8.4 -0.3 47.0 47.2 8.6 10.8 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 91 9 100 10.9 10.9 10.1 0.3 52.9 52.7 8.1 10.5 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 9.7 11.2 10.2 1.7 63.1 62.6 6.7 9.3 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 91 9 100 11.5 11.2 8.4 0.1 50.5 50.5 8.8 11.1 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 91 9 100 8.9 9.6 10.0 0.9 58.4 57.8 6.4 8.6 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 10.7 10.8 8.0 0.5 54.4 54.1 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 93 7 100 9.5 10.0 10.5 0.7 56.0 55.7 6.9 9.2 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 6.3 7.2 6.5 1.2 61.9 60.9 3.8 5.8 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 93 7 100 10.5 10.5 10.4 0.3 52.4 52.2 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 91 9 100 9.5 10.3 10.4 1.0 58.8 58.2 6.9 9.2 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 92 8 100 10.3 10.6 10.6 0.5 54.5 54.3 7.7 10.0 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 90 10 100 11.0 10.8 9.8 0.2 51.6 51.6 8.2 10.6 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 95 5 100 9.5 10.0 9.1 0.6 55.3 55.0 7.0 9.3 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 10.8 10.4 7.1 0.0 50.2 50.2 8.3 10.4 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 94 6 100 9.9 10.3 9.6 0.6 55.5 55.2 7.4 9.6 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 92 8 100 10.3 11.4 8.8 1.2 59.2 58.8 7.2 9.9 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 6.5 7.0 7.7 0.9 58.4 57.7 3.8 5.9 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 94 6 100 9.4 9.9 10.3 0.7 55.8 55.5 7.0 9.1 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------