***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.03.2021.-14.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 10.9 11.7 11.2 1.3 62.0 60.2 8.0 10.2 12.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 11.2 12.1 11.1 1.3 62.1 60.2 8.5 10.6 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 11.7 12.5 11.6 1.4 62.3 60.4 8.8 10.9 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 3.3 4.4 8.6 1.5 63.7 62.0 0.3 2.6 4.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 11.5 12.4 9.9 1.3 61.9 60.2 8.7 10.9 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 9.8 10.4 8.0 1.1 59.8 58.5 7.3 9.2 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 10.9 11.5 10.9 1.1 60.6 58.9 8.2 10.3 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 1.1 1.7 8.5 1.2 61.3 59.8 -1.5 0.5 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 11.6 12.3 10.7 1.3 61.8 60.0 8.7 10.9 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 11.5 12.3 9.4 1.3 61.3 59.6 8.7 10.8 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 11.4 12.0 10.1 1.1 60.1 58.7 8.5 10.7 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 10.8 11.4 9.2 1.1 60.3 59.0 8.1 10.2 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 11.5 11.9 9.3 0.9 58.7 57.7 9.0 10.9 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.1 13.0 10.8 1.5 63.1 61.1 9.1 11.3 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 10.7 11.7 10.1 1.4 62.8 61.4 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 11.8 12.3 9.4 1.1 59.7 58.5 9.1 11.1 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 10.7 11.4 10.7 1.2 61.4 59.5 8.0 10.1 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 11.3 12.1 8.9 1.4 62.2 60.4 8.3 10.6 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 11.2 12.2 11.3 1.4 62.8 60.8 8.4 10.6 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 8.0 7.4 6.7 1.3 62.7 60.9 4.0 6.0 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 11.6 12.4 11.3 1.3 62.1 60.2 8.9 11.0 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 11.4 12.4 11.0 1.3 62.7 60.5 8.6 10.8 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 11.8 12.8 11.6 1.4 63.1 61.2 9.0 11.2 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 12.1 12.9 10.7 1.4 62.5 60.6 9.1 11.3 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 10.9 11.7 9.9 1.3 61.9 60.0 8.1 10.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 11.2 11.6 8.2 0.9 58.9 58.2 8.7 10.6 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 11.2 11.8 10.5 1.1 60.9 59.1 8.5 10.5 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 10.9 12.0 9.3 1.4 62.8 61.4 7.7 10.2 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 6.5 7.3 8.2 1.4 62.7 60.8 3.6 5.7 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 11.1 11.8 11.2 1.3 62.0 60.1 8.4 10.4 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------