***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.03.2021.-21.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 12.8 13.0 12.1 0.7 57.0 55.5 10.3 12.2 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 12.9 13.0 11.8 0.6 56.1 54.9 10.5 12.3 14.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.4 12.5 0.7 57.1 55.5 10.7 12.7 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 5.2 5.9 10.1 1.1 60.6 58.2 2.1 4.4 6.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.6 10.8 0.8 58.0 56.1 10.5 12.6 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 12.3 12.5 8.8 0.8 57.8 55.4 9.3 11.5 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 12.7 12.5 11.7 0.4 54.8 53.8 10.2 12.0 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 2.1 2.1 9.3 0.7 56.9 55.3 -0.7 1.3 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 13.2 13.3 11.2 0.8 57.4 55.5 10.4 12.5 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.2 13.3 10.1 0.7 57.0 55.3 10.2 12.4 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.4 10.6 0.7 56.9 55.2 10.4 12.5 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.5 12.5 10.1 0.6 56.0 54.6 9.5 11.7 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 13.4 13.3 9.2 0.5 54.9 53.5 10.5 12.7 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 13.8 13.6 11.1 0.5 55.1 53.8 11.0 13.0 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 12.9 13.6 10.8 1.2 61.4 58.9 9.9 12.2 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 13.8 13.9 10.0 0.7 56.7 55.0 10.9 13.1 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.2 11.9 11.6 0.4 54.5 53.5 9.7 11.5 13.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 12.9 13.0 9.8 0.7 56.7 55.0 10.1 12.2 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 13.0 13.1 12.1 0.6 56.6 55.2 10.5 12.4 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.3 8.4 7.0 0.7 57.6 55.7 5.3 7.5 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.4 11.9 0.8 57.5 55.7 10.6 12.6 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 13.3 13.1 11.7 0.5 55.0 53.9 10.7 12.6 14.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.6 12.4 0.6 56.4 54.9 11.0 12.9 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 13.4 13.4 11.1 0.7 56.2 54.6 10.7 12.7 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 12.8 13.0 10.6 0.8 58.1 56.2 10.2 12.1 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 12.9 12.8 9.0 0.5 55.0 53.6 10.0 12.2 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 12.9 13.0 11.3 0.6 56.5 55.1 10.4 12.2 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 13.3 14.0 10.4 1.2 61.1 58.5 10.1 12.5 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 8.1 8.0 8.7 0.6 56.2 54.7 5.1 7.2 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 12.8 12.9 11.9 0.6 56.4 55.2 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------