***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.03.2021.-28.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 16.0 15.8 14.1 1.6 66.7 63.0 13.1 14.5 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 15.7 15.5 13.8 1.5 65.6 62.0 13.0 14.3 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 16.5 16.3 14.6 1.7 66.9 63.0 13.5 14.9 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 9.0 8.9 12.2 2.1 69.4 65.3 5.3 7.0 8.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 17.1 16.8 13.0 1.9 67.6 63.8 13.6 15.2 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 16.3 15.9 10.9 1.9 66.4 62.5 12.2 14.1 15.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 15.5 15.1 13.6 1.4 64.8 61.5 12.9 14.1 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 5.1 4.8 11.6 2.0 67.5 63.0 1.3 3.1 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 16.9 16.6 13.4 1.9 67.4 63.4 13.4 15.0 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 16.9 16.6 12.4 2.0 67.4 63.1 13.3 14.9 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 16.9 16.6 12.8 1.8 66.6 62.8 13.3 15.0 16.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 16.3 15.9 12.4 1.8 66.5 62.4 12.3 14.1 15.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 17.0 16.6 11.5 1.6 65.1 61.4 13.3 15.1 16.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 16.7 16.4 13.5 1.8 66.7 62.5 13.6 15.0 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 16.2 16.2 12.8 2.1 69.7 65.8 12.9 14.5 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 17.5 17.1 12.2 1.8 66.0 62.4 13.7 15.4 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 14.6 14.3 13.5 1.4 65.6 61.9 12.1 13.2 14.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 16.5 16.2 12.2 2.1 67.9 63.3 12.8 14.4 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 15.9 15.6 14.1 1.6 66.2 62.3 13.2 14.4 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 11.4 11.2 9.4 2.1 69.0 63.4 7.3 9.1 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 16.8 16.6 14.1 1.8 67.7 63.6 13.6 15.0 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 15.6 15.4 13.8 1.6 66.5 62.4 13.0 14.2 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 16.3 16.1 14.5 1.7 66.6 62.4 13.5 14.8 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 16.8 16.5 13.4 1.9 67.2 62.9 13.4 14.9 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 16.3 16.1 12.7 1.8 67.8 64.0 13.4 14.7 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 15.1 16.1 11.3 1.6 65.8 62.1 12.7 14.4 16.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 16.3 16.0 13.4 1.6 66.4 62.9 13.3 14.7 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 16.8 16.7 12.4 2.1 69.2 65.2 13.2 14.8 16.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 11.6 11.3 11.2 2.1 67.9 63.1 7.6 9.4 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 15.7 15.4 13.9 1.5 65.6 62.1 13.0 14.2 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------