***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.03.2021.-28.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 12.0 12.7 11.9 1.1 64.1 63.1 10.2 11.6 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 11.9 12.6 11.8 1.0 63.8 62.7 10.3 11.6 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 12.5 13.1 12.2 1.0 63.2 62.2 10.8 12.1 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 46 54 100 5.7 5.9 9.6 1.5 67.8 66.3 2.7 4.2 5.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 12.6 13.4 10.6 1.1 64.0 62.9 10.8 12.2 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 11.5 12.1 8.6 0.9 61.4 60.1 9.7 11.1 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 11.6 12.2 11.6 0.9 62.3 61.4 10.0 11.3 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 1.6 2.3 9.3 1.1 64.3 62.7 0.1 1.3 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 12.6 13.3 11.3 1.1 63.8 62.6 10.8 12.2 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 12.5 13.2 10.1 1.0 63.1 61.8 10.8 12.2 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 12.6 13.2 10.7 0.9 61.7 60.8 10.8 12.2 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 11.9 12.6 10.0 1.0 62.9 61.5 10.1 11.5 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 12.7 13.1 9.6 0.7 59.3 58.4 11.0 12.4 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 12.8 13.5 11.4 1.1 63.3 62.1 11.1 12.5 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 13.1 13.3 11.0 1.6 68.8 67.2 9.9 11.5 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 13.0 13.6 10.0 0.9 61.6 60.6 11.3 12.7 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 11.1 11.8 11.4 1.0 63.7 62.6 9.6 10.8 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 12.2 13.0 9.7 1.2 64.6 63.1 10.5 11.8 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 12.0 12.7 12.0 1.1 64.1 63.1 10.3 11.6 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 8.6 8.5 7.4 1.3 68.0 65.7 5.8 7.1 8.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 12.6 13.3 12.0 1.0 63.7 62.6 10.9 12.2 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 12.0 12.8 11.7 1.1 64.9 63.6 10.4 11.7 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 12.5 13.3 12.2 1.1 64.0 62.9 10.9 12.2 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 12.7 13.4 11.3 1.0 63.2 62.0 11.0 12.4 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 12.0 12.7 10.6 1.1 64.5 63.4 10.3 11.6 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 12.2 12.8 8.9 0.7 61.1 59.8 10.6 11.9 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 12.1 12.8 11.2 1.0 63.4 62.4 10.4 11.8 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 47 53 100 13.4 13.6 10.2 1.5 67.4 66.0 10.1 11.9 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 46 54 100 8.4 8.4 9.0 1.3 65.9 64.2 5.7 7.1 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 11.8 12.5 11.8 1.0 63.5 62.5 10.2 11.5 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------