***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.03.2021.-14.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 2.1 4.2 10.9 83.9 55.3 43.6 2.2 3.6 5.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 4.4 3.4 9.3 75.0 52.7 43.4 1.5 3.1 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 2.9 6.0 10.7 78.7 53.1 42.2 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 8.5 6.8 12.0 76.6 51.3 41.9 3.8 6.5 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 6.2 5.0 12.0 80.5 53.0 43.5 2.1 4.4 7.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.4 4.7 12.0 79.5 51.9 43.1 2.0 4.4 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 4.0 3.3 9.1 75.9 52.7 43.3 1.7 3.1 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 5.3 10.3 13.2 85.0 53.8 43.7 5.4 9.3 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.0 5.6 12.3 80.7 52.4 42.7 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.0 6.3 13.0 83.6 53.7 43.8 2.6 5.4 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.0 6.0 11.8 79.5 51.3 42.0 2.7 5.7 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.3 4.7 11.7 82.1 52.2 42.4 2.3 4.4 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.5 6.4 12.1 81.0 52.0 43.0 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.0 14.5 86.5 56.1 46.1 3.1 6.4 11.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.6 5.0 10.3 68.5 49.5 39.2 2.6 5.1 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.9 5.7 11.6 80.5 52.8 43.3 2.7 5.2 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 4.0 3.1 8.6 70.1 50.1 42.3 1.8 3.1 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.0 13.8 84.3 53.5 43.7 2.7 5.3 9.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 2.5 4.6 9.6 74.9 52.3 42.8 2.3 4.3 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 2.4 4.5 16.9 85.3 53.0 43.4 2.3 4.1 6.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 2.5 5.1 11.5 80.0 53.0 42.5 2.3 4.5 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 3.7 2.7 9.4 72.1 50.4 42.7 1.3 2.6 4.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.1 3.8 10.4 74.5 50.6 41.4 1.8 3.7 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.3 6.3 12.8 79.9 52.2 42.4 2.8 5.9 10.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 2.5 4.8 12.4 81.4 53.2 43.8 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 1.6 3.5 12.5 80.7 52.3 43.4 1.5 3.2 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.7 5.5 11.7 84.9 55.2 44.4 2.7 4.7 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.4 4.7 10.8 71.8 49.6 39.6 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 10.7 8.8 14.9 85.2 53.7 44.1 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 1.9 3.7 9.9 79.6 54.6 44.0 1.7 3.2 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------