***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.03.2021.-21.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 2.4 5.3 12.9 100.3 62.9 48.5 2.4 3.8 5.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.7 7.1 12.1 109.5 66.3 50.4 2.3 4.3 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.5 9.3 12.8 100.8 63.0 47.3 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.6 9.7 14.9 101.1 63.5 49.1 4.5 7.1 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.1 9.9 13.9 98.3 62.0 48.7 4.6 7.4 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.8 8.0 15.5 106.4 64.2 51.2 2.6 5.0 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 5.3 6.4 11.6 106.6 65.2 50.6 2.3 4.1 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.1 17.1 14.3 100.5 62.1 49.2 7.9 12.8 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.9 8.2 14.2 96.7 60.8 48.4 3.7 6.2 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.0 11.4 14.8 97.5 60.8 48.6 4.6 8.2 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.8 9.8 13.3 102.0 63.2 49.3 3.7 6.6 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.2 11.2 13.2 105.6 64.3 50.2 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.5 10.0 15.3 109.4 65.5 52.0 4.0 6.7 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 3.8 10.1 16.8 105.1 64.5 48.1 3.6 6.5 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 1.9 7.2 14.5 101.5 64.3 48.2 1.6 3.9 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.6 8.7 14.3 106.6 64.9 51.1 3.4 5.8 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 4.6 5.9 11.6 106.9 65.6 52.0 1.6 3.4 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.1 9.2 15.3 96.1 60.3 48.8 3.8 6.8 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.6 8.5 12.7 110.3 66.6 49.6 2.2 4.6 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.5 10.3 18.2 100.5 62.0 50.7 4.3 7.4 11.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.0 8.3 13.4 97.8 61.7 48.0 3.8 6.2 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 5.6 7.2 12.8 109.2 66.4 51.5 2.1 4.1 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.3 6.8 13.8 110.5 66.7 48.6 2.0 3.9 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.3 11.9 14.6 97.1 61.1 47.3 5.0 8.7 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 2.4 6.3 14.8 100.6 63.2 50.3 2.2 4.2 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 7.9 9.6 15.4 109.0 65.8 51.6 3.5 6.1 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.6 6.4 13.8 100.2 62.8 49.9 2.4 4.4 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 1.9 6.2 14.6 101.4 63.6 48.8 1.7 3.7 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 15.6 16.4 16.1 97.8 60.9 49.6 6.6 11.8 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 6.4 7.7 12.4 107.5 65.5 49.3 2.4 4.6 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------