***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.03.2021.-28.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 4.0 8.5 10.7 82.7 54.9 45.7 3.7 7.2 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.7 8.4 10.8 90.4 59.1 47.4 3.4 6.3 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 4.0 8.9 10.0 77.8 52.6 42.0 4.3 8.0 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.0 7.4 10.9 73.5 50.3 39.3 4.0 7.3 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 4.2 7.9 10.5 75.9 51.0 39.3 4.0 7.6 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 3.5 7.5 12.3 79.5 51.6 38.5 3.8 7.1 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 8.4 8.2 10.8 91.0 58.9 47.3 3.3 6.2 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 8.2 14.2 11.9 78.5 51.0 40.1 8.1 13.7 21.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 4.1 8.1 11.0 76.6 50.9 38.7 4.3 7.9 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.9 9.3 12.2 79.6 51.4 39.6 4.7 8.8 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 3.5 7.6 10.1 75.8 51.0 38.8 3.4 7.4 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 4.6 8.9 10.4 77.2 51.5 40.0 4.8 8.6 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 4.8 9.5 11.9 78.8 51.2 39.6 5.1 9.1 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 7.0 15.9 14.5 89.9 57.8 44.4 7.1 12.6 20.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.9 6.7 10.4 71.6 51.9 38.1 2.8 6.2 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 3.5 7.4 10.7 75.9 50.8 38.5 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 9.6 9.9 11.1 93.1 60.2 47.6 3.3 6.8 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.3 9.4 13.4 83.9 53.4 41.4 5.2 8.6 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.8 9.3 10.6 86.7 57.2 45.7 3.6 7.2 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.2 9.0 15.4 80.6 51.4 40.8 4.8 8.7 14.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 4.2 8.1 10.1 76.2 51.5 39.8 4.2 7.7 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.2 10.5 11.9 94.9 60.8 48.3 4.0 7.5 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 3.9 9.1 10.5 80.8 54.3 42.5 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 5.8 11.9 12.4 83.3 54.2 41.5 5.9 10.5 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.7 9.1 11.6 81.2 54.4 44.4 4.4 8.0 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.1 6.9 12.3 82.2 53.8 40.1 3.1 6.0 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.0 8.2 11.4 84.0 55.9 46.7 3.5 6.8 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.4 5.2 10.6 72.2 50.6 38.0 2.3 5.1 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.0 15.4 14.1 84.5 53.4 41.9 8.8 14.1 20.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.1 7.3 10.7 87.7 57.8 46.7 2.7 5.5 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------