***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.03.2021.-28.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 19.6 19.9 35.6 66.4 28.8 30.8 21.6 29.1 37.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 16.0 17.0 33.2 68.9 31.9 32.8 17.5 26.2 36.6 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 22.1 24.0 34.9 66.0 28.5 29.3 27.0 38.0 51.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 25.8 26.5 39.7 64.4 26.9 28.7 29.5 38.6 48.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 23.3 24.7 38.3 65.6 26.6 27.8 28.1 37.7 48.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 18.8 20.6 42.7 70.5 28.9 29.8 22.5 31.2 41.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 16.4 16.5 32.6 68.3 31.3 32.6 17.2 24.9 33.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 48.9 52.2 42.6 69.8 28.2 28.8 55.4 66.5 78.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 20.6 22.5 39.5 67.2 27.5 28.0 25.1 34.5 44.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 76 24 0 100 28.2 30.8 43.2 69.8 27.9 28.4 33.5 43.9 55.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 22.1 23.9 37.6 67.0 27.8 28.5 27.1 37.8 50.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 22.5 24.0 37.7 68.6 28.4 29.2 26.5 35.9 46.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 25.0 26.5 41.9 70.0 27.5 29.4 29.2 38.0 47.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 34.5 39.6 48.4 73.1 32.5 32.4 39.9 53.0 67.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 15.3 17.8 36.9 64.5 31.3 30.6 18.8 30.5 45.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 22.7 24.3 38.9 67.6 27.8 28.8 26.7 34.6 43.5 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 16.0 15.9 32.4 67.9 30.9 32.7 16.8 24.7 34.5 30 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 23.9 26.2 45.9 70.7 28.3 28.8 28.8 38.2 48.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 20.9 22.8 34.1 68.7 31.4 32.1 23.5 32.7 43.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 24.9 27.1 53.9 70.4 28.3 29.1 29.4 38.4 48.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 21.4 22.2 36.8 65.6 27.4 28.5 25.3 34.7 45.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 19.1 19.6 35.2 70.3 32.6 33.8 19.8 28.1 37.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 21.5 23.8 36.2 68.6 31.0 31.3 24.7 32.7 41.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 30.2 33.4 42.3 69.1 29.0 29.4 36.0 48.0 61.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 20.9 20.9 40.2 65.8 26.9 29.6 24.0 32.5 42.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 17.0 18.9 42.5 70.6 29.9 31.1 20.4 28.7 38.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 20.6 21.1 38.0 67.0 28.6 30.8 22.9 30.6 39.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 16.8 18.2 38.2 65.0 28.8 29.2 20.3 29.3 40.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 77 23 0 100 40.6 44.8 48.5 71.1 29.0 29.4 48.2 61.7 76.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 16.8 18.3 34.1 69.2 32.5 33.0 18.6 27.2 37.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------