***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2015.-15.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 -1.9 -1.7 -1.0 -1.8 27.5 29.1 -1.1 0.5 2.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 -1.9 -1.4 -1.2 -1.8 28.1 29.5 -0.9 0.6 1.9 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 0.4 0.7 -1.3 -1.8 28.1 29.7 1.2 2.7 4.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -5.8 -5.5 -3.4 -1.6 31.0 33.4 -5.3 -3.7 -2.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 -2.5 -2.4 -3.6 -1.9 26.7 30.2 -1.9 -0.6 0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 -3.3 -3.9 -5.8 -2.8 19.2 26.0 -2.7 -1.5 -0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 -1.5 -1.3 -1.2 -1.8 27.6 29.1 -0.8 0.7 2.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 -9.0 -9.6 -5.9 -2.9 18.6 23.5 -7.9 -6.3 -4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 -1.5 -1.6 -3.2 -2.1 24.9 28.4 -0.8 0.6 1.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 -1.5 -1.9 -5.3 -2.8 20.5 24.4 -0.8 0.5 1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 -1.7 -1.9 -3.9 -2.2 23.9 28.3 -1.1 0.1 1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 -3.0 -3.3 -4.5 -2.6 19.7 25.4 -2.2 -1.1 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 -1.9 -2.5 -5.1 -2.9 17.3 23.3 -1.3 -0.1 0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 -1.1 -1.0 -3.4 -2.3 24.8 27.4 -0.3 1.1 2.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 1.2 -0.3 -2.5 -1.2 35.7 37.2 -0.5 0.7 1.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 -1.1 -1.3 -4.3 -2.3 23.3 28.1 -0.5 0.7 1.8 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 -1.4 -0.9 -1.2 -1.7 28.6 29.9 -0.5 0.9 2.2 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 -3.5 -3.9 -6.5 -3.1 19.5 23.2 -2.6 -1.4 -0.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 -2.0 -1.4 -1.2 -1.8 28.5 29.9 -1.0 0.6 2.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 -6.4 -6.8 -8.4 -3.4 18.2 21.8 -5.3 -3.9 -2.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 -1.8 -1.7 -1.9 -1.9 27.3 29.5 -1.2 0.2 1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 78 22 0 100 -2.1 -1.5 -1.2 -1.8 27.7 29.1 -1.0 0.4 1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 -2.1 -1.6 -1.6 -1.7 28.7 30.2 -1.2 0.2 1.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 -1.6 -1.8 -3.8 -2.4 23.9 26.8 -1.0 0.4 1.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 -1.9 -1.6 -2.7 -1.7 28.4 30.4 -1.2 0.2 1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 -2.0 -2.6 -4.8 -2.8 17.4 23.0 -1.3 -0.1 1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 -2.1 -1.8 -1.9 -1.9 27.0 28.9 -1.1 0.5 2.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 -2.4 -2.2 -3.1 -1.6 31.4 34.0 -2.1 -0.9 0.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 -4.9 -5.3 -7.1 -3.1 20.6 24.1 -3.9 -2.3 -0.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 -1.6 -1.2 -1.1 -1.8 27.8 29.2 -0.7 0.8 2.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------