***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2015.-22.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 -0.4 0.7 0.7 -1.0 36.4 37.6 0.4 1.8 3.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 -0.6 0.6 0.7 -0.8 39.2 39.6 0.1 1.4 2.7 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 1.8 2.8 0.5 -0.9 37.3 38.4 2.5 3.9 5.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -4.4 -3.4 -1.6 -0.8 37.7 39.7 -3.9 -2.1 -0.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 -0.7 -0.2 -1.6 -1.0 35.4 38.0 -0.3 0.8 1.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 -1.2 -1.1 -3.8 -1.4 28.5 35.5 -0.8 0.2 1.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 -0.3 0.9 0.7 -0.8 38.5 38.9 0.5 1.8 3.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 -7.7 -7.2 -3.5 -1.5 31.3 35.1 -7.0 -5.3 -3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 0.2 0.9 -1.2 -1.2 34.3 36.8 0.7 2.0 3.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 0.4 0.8 -3.0 -1.5 31.9 34.7 0.8 1.9 2.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 0.2 0.6 -1.9 -1.1 33.6 37.0 0.6 1.6 2.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 -1.0 -0.7 -2.4 -1.3 31.7 36.5 -0.6 0.5 1.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 0.0 0.1 -3.0 -1.4 28.7 34.8 0.4 1.4 2.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 1.0 1.6 -1.2 -1.1 35.6 37.3 1.4 2.5 3.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 0.6 1.3 -1.0 -0.7 38.8 40.2 0.9 2.1 3.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 0.7 1.0 -2.3 -1.1 32.4 36.8 1.1 2.2 3.2 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 0.1 1.1 0.6 -0.8 39.0 39.3 0.7 1.9 3.0 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 -1.3 -1.0 -4.1 -1.6 32.0 34.7 -0.9 0.0 0.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 -0.3 0.8 0.6 -0.8 39.3 39.9 0.3 1.7 3.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 -4.1 -3.7 -5.8 -1.6 33.5 36.3 -3.8 -2.6 -1.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 -0.1 0.6 -0.1 -1.0 35.9 37.6 0.4 1.5 2.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 -0.3 0.7 0.6 -0.8 39.2 39.7 0.3 1.4 2.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 -0.2 0.6 0.4 -0.8 39.0 39.9 0.2 1.3 2.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 0.3 0.8 -1.7 -1.2 34.4 36.5 0.7 1.7 2.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 -0.2 0.6 -0.8 -0.8 37.9 39.0 0.3 1.4 2.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 -0.1 0.0 -2.8 -1.4 28.2 35.3 0.3 1.3 2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 -0.6 0.5 0.0 -0.9 36.8 37.9 0.2 1.7 3.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 -1.0 -0.4 -1.4 -0.8 36.8 39.2 -0.7 0.4 1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 -3.3 -2.7 -4.7 -1.6 32.9 35.8 -2.7 -1.2 0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 -0.2 1.0 0.7 -0.8 38.4 39.1 0.6 2.0 3.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------