***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2015.-29.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 4.2 4.1 3.3 0.3 54.9 54.6 2.3 3.7 5.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 3.7 3.6 3.1 0.3 54.9 54.5 2.1 3.3 4.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.9 3.0 0.3 55.3 55.2 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.4 57.3 55.9 -1.7 -0.4 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 3.3 3.2 1.0 0.4 55.9 55.2 1.3 2.7 4.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 2.4 2.5 -0.7 0.6 59.3 58.2 0.5 1.8 3.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 3.8 3.7 3.2 0.3 55.2 54.6 2.3 3.4 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -2.9 -3.4 -0.8 0.1 52.1 54.2 -5.1 -3.6 -2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.9 1.5 0.3 54.1 54.3 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.7 -0.2 0.1 51.8 53.3 2.5 3.6 4.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 3.9 3.8 0.7 0.4 56.0 55.6 2.2 3.4 4.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 2.5 2.3 0.3 0.3 54.5 55.6 0.6 1.9 3.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 1.4 3.4 -0.1 0.4 56.4 56.0 1.6 2.9 4.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 4.3 4.0 1.4 0.2 53.3 53.6 2.8 3.8 4.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.1 4.1 1.4 0.4 57.6 56.2 2.6 3.6 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 4.5 4.5 0.3 0.4 56.9 56.0 2.6 3.9 5.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 3.9 3.7 3.0 0.3 54.2 53.4 2.6 3.5 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 0.1 1.5 -1.0 0.1 50.8 52.7 0.3 1.4 2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 3.7 3.6 3.0 0.3 54.8 54.5 2.1 3.3 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -0.8 -1.3 -2.8 0.1 51.1 53.4 -2.7 -1.4 -0.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 4.0 3.8 2.4 0.3 54.7 54.6 2.2 3.5 4.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 3.3 3.1 2.9 0.2 53.2 52.9 1.8 2.9 3.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 3.4 3.2 2.7 0.3 54.9 54.7 1.8 2.9 4.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 2.0 3.5 1.1 0.2 53.3 54.1 2.2 3.3 4.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.0 4.1 1.8 0.5 58.1 56.4 2.1 3.5 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 1.3 3.4 0.1 0.4 57.2 56.3 1.6 2.9 4.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 4.4 4.4 2.6 0.4 56.7 55.7 2.3 3.8 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 2.7 2.6 1.1 0.4 56.6 55.7 0.9 2.2 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 -1.1 0.6 -1.6 0.2 52.1 54.0 -0.9 0.5 1.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 4.2 4.1 3.2 0.3 55.1 54.8 2.5 3.8 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------