***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2015.-29.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 1.9 0.9 0.8 -0.6 39.8 41.1 0.5 1.6 2.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 1.6 0.8 0.8 -0.5 41.0 41.9 0.3 1.3 2.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 3.8 3.0 0.7 -0.5 40.8 41.8 2.6 3.6 4.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 -2.2 -2.9 -1.5 -0.3 44.2 45.0 -3.6 -2.6 -1.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 0.9 0.2 -1.4 -0.5 41.4 42.7 -0.3 0.6 1.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 0.2 -0.9 -3.3 -0.7 35.7 39.6 -1.1 -0.2 0.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 1.8 1.0 0.8 -0.5 41.1 41.9 0.6 1.5 2.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -6.8 -6.7 -3.4 -1.1 31.1 34.6 -6.6 -5.4 -4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 2.1 1.2 -0.9 -0.6 39.4 41.0 0.8 1.7 2.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 2.0 0.9 -2.8 -1.0 34.1 36.3 0.8 1.6 2.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 1.7 0.9 -1.7 -0.6 39.0 41.1 0.5 1.4 2.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 0.5 -0.8 -2.3 -0.9 32.3 36.6 -0.8 0.1 1.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 0.1 0.1 -2.6 -0.9 31.3 36.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 2.3 1.4 -1.1 -0.7 37.7 38.8 1.2 2.1 2.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 2.0 1.6 -0.6 -0.1 47.4 47.8 0.9 1.7 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 2.3 1.3 -2.0 -0.6 37.9 40.7 1.0 1.9 2.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 1.9 1.1 0.7 -0.5 40.6 41.5 0.7 1.6 2.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 -0.1 -1.2 -3.8 -1.1 33.0 34.9 -1.2 -0.4 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 1.7 0.9 0.7 -0.5 40.9 41.9 0.4 1.4 2.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 -2.7 -4.3 -5.7 -1.3 31.0 33.0 -4.1 -3.1 -2.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 1.6 0.8 0.1 -0.5 40.6 41.8 0.4 1.3 2.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 1.5 0.6 0.7 -0.6 39.6 40.6 0.3 1.2 2.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 1.3 0.6 0.4 -0.5 40.8 41.8 0.1 1.1 1.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 1.6 0.7 -1.4 -0.8 37.0 38.4 0.5 1.4 2.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 1.6 0.9 -0.6 -0.4 42.8 43.9 0.3 1.3 2.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 -0.1 -0.1 -2.6 -1.1 28.1 33.4 0.2 1.0 1.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 1.9 0.9 0.2 -0.5 40.5 41.8 0.5 1.5 2.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 0.5 -0.1 -1.2 -0.4 43.5 44.6 -0.6 0.2 1.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 -1.0 -2.4 -4.4 -1.0 34.6 36.4 -2.5 -1.4 -0.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 2.0 1.2 0.8 -0.5 40.7 41.7 0.7 1.7 2.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------