***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2015.-08.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 5.4 6.3 6.9 -2.4 29.0 29.5 6.9 9.3 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 6.1 6.6 6.9 -2.3 29.8 30.3 7.1 9.2 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 79 21 0 100 5.8 6.6 6.8 -2.9 26.4 26.9 7.6 9.9 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 -0.9 0.0 4.7 -2.3 31.0 31.4 0.3 2.7 4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 81 19 0 100 5.7 6.7 5.3 -2.9 26.7 27.2 7.7 10.1 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 5.6 5.9 3.6 -2.9 24.5 25.8 7.2 9.4 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 6.0 6.5 6.9 -2.2 30.7 31.1 6.8 9.0 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 86 14 0 100 -3.8 -3.4 3.5 -3.4 21.9 22.7 -1.9 0.1 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 6.0 6.7 6.0 -3.1 25.0 25.6 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 87 13 0 100 5.8 6.4 4.4 -3.5 22.4 23.1 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 6.2 6.8 5.1 -3.1 25.1 25.8 8.1 10.5 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 79 21 0 100 6.0 6.3 4.5 -3.1 23.4 24.3 7.7 9.9 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 6.9 7.0 4.7 -3.0 23.5 24.6 8.5 10.7 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 87 13 0 100 5.6 6.4 5.7 -3.5 23.5 23.9 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 10.1 7.1 6.6 -1.8 35.2 35.5 6.7 9.2 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 6.9 7.4 5.0 -2.9 25.3 26.2 8.6 10.9 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 5.9 6.3 6.8 -2.1 31.4 31.7 6.5 8.7 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 93 7 0 100 5.2 5.7 3.4 -3.7 20.7 21.3 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 5.6 6.2 6.9 -2.6 28.4 28.9 6.9 9.2 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 94 6 0 100 1.2 1.3 1.0 -3.8 18.1 18.9 3.5 5.5 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 6.0 6.8 6.6 -3.0 26.3 26.8 7.8 10.1 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 6.0 6.6 6.9 -2.3 30.2 30.6 7.0 9.2 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 78 22 0 100 5.9 6.7 6.8 -2.9 26.5 27.0 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 88 12 0 100 5.7 6.4 5.3 -3.5 22.7 23.2 8.1 10.5 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 5.8 6.6 5.7 -2.4 29.8 30.2 7.1 9.3 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 6.5 6.7 3.9 -2.8 23.1 24.4 8.1 10.2 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 6.0 6.8 6.3 -2.4 29.4 29.8 7.4 9.6 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 6.2 6.8 5.5 -2.3 31.3 31.8 7.1 9.7 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 93 7 0 100 1.1 1.6 2.5 -3.7 20.3 20.9 3.5 5.7 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 5.9 6.5 7.0 -2.4 29.3 29.8 7.0 9.2 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------