***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2015.-15.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 7.4 7.7 6.9 -2.2 27.4 29.4 8.5 10.5 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 8.2 8.4 7.1 -1.9 29.5 31.2 8.9 10.9 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 8.1 8.2 6.7 -2.4 26.1 28.2 9.2 11.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 -0.5 -0.2 4.8 -2.3 26.8 28.9 0.7 3.0 5.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 7.8 7.7 4.7 -2.8 23.2 25.7 9.1 11.2 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 6.5 5.9 2.8 -3.4 18.3 21.2 7.8 9.7 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 7.8 8.2 7.1 -1.9 29.7 31.4 8.6 10.6 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 81 19 0 100 -2.5 -3.0 2.9 -3.5 17.9 20.8 -1.0 0.8 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 7.8 7.6 5.1 -3.0 22.4 25.1 9.1 11.2 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 7.5 7.1 3.7 -3.4 19.5 22.4 9.1 11.2 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 7.5 7.1 4.2 -3.2 20.3 23.3 8.9 11.0 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 6.9 6.2 3.8 -3.5 17.8 20.9 8.4 10.4 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 8.1 7.3 3.3 -3.5 17.2 20.3 9.5 11.3 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 8.0 7.9 4.9 -3.1 22.7 25.1 9.4 11.6 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 7.2 7.7 5.5 -1.9 30.4 32.2 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 8.2 7.7 3.9 -3.2 19.6 22.6 9.6 11.5 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 7.8 8.1 7.0 -1.7 30.8 32.3 8.4 10.3 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 7.0 6.6 2.9 -3.5 19.0 21.7 8.7 10.9 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 7.9 8.2 7.0 -2.1 28.5 30.3 8.8 10.9 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 86 14 0 100 2.8 2.5 0.8 -3.4 17.8 20.4 4.6 6.5 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 8.1 8.2 6.1 -2.6 24.8 27.2 9.3 11.3 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 8.2 8.5 7.0 -1.9 29.6 31.3 9.0 11.1 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 8.1 8.4 6.6 -2.4 26.4 28.5 9.3 11.4 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 8.0 7.8 4.8 -3.2 21.7 24.3 9.4 11.5 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 7.3 7.6 5.3 -2.2 26.9 28.9 8.5 10.5 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 7.9 7.1 3.2 -3.5 16.7 19.7 9.3 11.1 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 7.8 8.1 6.2 -2.2 27.0 29.0 8.8 10.8 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 7.0 7.1 5.0 -2.4 26.6 28.8 8.2 10.6 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 80 20 0 100 2.4 2.1 2.0 -3.5 19.2 21.9 4.1 6.1 8.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 8.0 8.2 7.1 -2.0 28.6 30.4 8.7 10.7 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------