***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2015.-22.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9.7 11.3 10.1 -0.9 40.3 40.8 10.4 12.4 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 10.1 11.5 10.1 -0.8 40.8 41.1 10.7 12.5 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 10.2 11.7 10.1 -1.0 39.8 40.3 10.9 12.9 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 1.2 3.2 8.1 -1.0 39.8 40.7 2.1 4.7 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 9.8 11.4 8.3 -1.1 38.6 39.7 10.6 12.9 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 8.2 9.7 6.2 -1.4 35.7 37.7 9.3 11.6 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 9.9 11.2 10.0 -0.8 41.0 41.3 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 -1.7 -0.5 6.7 -1.5 35.4 37.2 -0.8 1.3 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 9.8 11.2 8.8 -1.2 38.2 39.2 10.5 12.7 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 9.4 10.7 7.5 -1.4 36.4 37.8 10.3 12.6 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 9.5 11.1 7.9 -1.3 37.5 38.8 10.4 12.7 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 8.7 10.0 7.5 -1.4 36.1 38.0 9.5 11.8 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 9.6 10.9 7.0 -1.4 35.7 37.8 10.5 12.8 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 10.4 11.8 8.8 -1.3 38.2 39.1 11.1 13.2 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 9.2 11.1 8.4 -0.9 40.6 41.5 10.0 12.4 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 10.0 11.5 7.5 -1.3 36.9 38.6 10.9 13.2 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 9.4 10.7 9.9 -0.8 41.0 41.3 9.9 11.6 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 9.2 10.4 6.8 -1.5 35.8 37.2 10.1 12.3 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 10.1 11.6 10.2 -0.9 40.5 40.8 10.8 12.6 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 4.3 5.3 4.3 -1.6 34.0 35.9 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 9.9 11.5 9.5 -1.1 39.2 39.9 10.7 12.8 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 10.2 11.7 10.0 -0.9 40.5 40.9 10.9 12.7 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 10.5 12.0 10.0 -1.0 39.9 40.3 11.2 13.1 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 10.0 11.4 8.6 -1.3 37.6 38.6 10.8 12.9 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 9.8 11.3 8.6 -0.9 40.4 40.9 10.4 12.4 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 9.0 10.3 6.8 -1.3 35.4 37.7 10.0 12.2 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 9.9 11.4 9.3 -0.9 40.5 41.0 10.5 12.5 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 9.1 11.1 8.2 -1.0 39.2 40.5 10.2 12.7 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 4.1 5.4 5.8 -1.5 36.1 37.5 5.0 7.3 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 9.9 11.4 10.2 -0.9 40.6 40.9 10.5 12.4 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------