***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2015.-29.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 15.0 15.1 13.3 0.7 58.1 56.1 13.1 14.5 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 15.0 15.2 13.2 0.7 59.1 56.7 13.2 14.5 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.7 13.4 0.6 57.5 55.7 13.7 15.1 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 7.6 7.6 11.4 0.5 56.1 55.1 5.5 7.0 8.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 15.8 15.8 11.7 0.6 56.4 55.4 13.8 15.3 16.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 14.9 15.0 9.9 0.7 57.1 56.3 12.5 14.3 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 14.8 15.0 13.2 0.8 59.9 57.3 13.1 14.3 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 3.9 3.9 10.2 0.6 56.7 55.7 1.7 3.3 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.6 12.2 0.6 56.3 55.2 13.6 15.1 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.6 11.0 0.6 56.1 55.1 13.5 15.1 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.7 11.4 0.6 56.9 56.0 13.6 15.1 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 14.9 15.1 11.1 0.7 57.8 56.8 12.6 14.3 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.0 10.6 0.7 57.9 56.9 13.6 15.2 16.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.8 12.3 0.6 56.4 54.8 13.9 15.3 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 15.1 15.0 11.6 0.5 56.0 55.0 13.3 14.6 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.3 11.1 0.7 57.0 56.2 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 13.9 14.2 13.0 0.8 59.6 56.9 12.3 13.5 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.2 10.3 0.5 55.5 54.5 13.1 14.7 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 15.1 15.3 13.4 0.7 58.3 56.2 13.4 14.7 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.1 9.8 7.6 0.4 54.2 53.5 7.8 9.4 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 15.6 15.7 12.9 0.6 56.7 55.3 13.7 15.1 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 15.0 15.1 13.1 0.7 58.2 55.8 13.2 14.5 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.6 13.3 0.6 57.3 55.4 13.7 15.0 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.7 12.1 0.6 56.2 54.9 13.6 15.1 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 15.2 15.3 11.8 0.7 57.8 56.0 13.5 14.8 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.5 10.3 0.7 58.0 57.2 13.1 14.7 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.5 12.6 0.7 58.7 56.6 13.5 14.8 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.3 11.5 0.5 55.5 54.8 13.4 14.9 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.2 9.3 0.6 56.1 54.9 7.9 9.6 11.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 14.9 15.1 13.3 0.7 58.8 56.6 13.2 14.5 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------