***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2015.-29.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 10.1 10.3 9.3 -1.2 32.3 34.0 10.4 11.7 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 10.4 10.7 9.3 -1.1 33.8 35.2 10.6 11.8 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 10.6 10.8 9.3 -1.4 30.3 32.2 11.0 12.3 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 2.5 2.8 7.2 -1.3 32.3 34.6 2.8 4.3 5.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 10.5 10.6 7.5 -1.6 28.7 31.3 11.0 12.4 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 9.3 9.2 5.6 -1.8 24.9 29.2 9.9 11.3 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 12.0 10.4 9.3 -1.0 34.6 35.9 10.3 11.5 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 -0.6 -0.7 5.8 -1.9 23.6 27.3 0.1 1.4 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 10.3 10.5 8.0 -1.7 27.3 30.0 11.0 12.3 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 10.1 10.2 6.6 -1.9 24.5 27.7 10.9 12.3 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 10.3 10.4 7.2 -1.7 26.5 29.7 11.0 12.3 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 9.5 9.5 6.7 -1.8 24.6 28.5 10.3 11.6 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 10.5 10.4 6.4 -1.8 24.4 28.5 11.2 12.5 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 10.8 10.8 7.9 -1.8 26.7 29.0 11.4 12.6 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.3 10.3 8.0 -1.0 35.6 37.5 10.1 11.6 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 10.9 10.9 6.9 -1.7 26.3 29.9 11.5 12.8 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.5 10.0 9.2 -1.0 35.1 36.4 9.9 11.0 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 9.7 9.8 5.9 -2.1 23.3 26.5 10.6 12.0 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 10.3 10.5 9.4 -1.2 32.4 34.0 10.6 11.8 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 4.9 4.8 3.4 -2.1 21.2 24.9 5.9 7.2 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 10.6 10.8 8.8 -1.5 29.3 31.5 11.1 12.3 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 10.5 10.7 9.3 -1.1 33.5 35.1 10.7 11.9 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 10.8 10.9 9.2 -1.4 30.3 32.1 11.1 12.4 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 10.5 10.6 7.7 -1.9 25.9 28.4 11.2 12.5 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 12.3 10.4 7.8 -1.2 32.5 34.4 10.5 11.8 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 10.0 9.9 6.1 -1.7 24.1 28.4 10.7 12.1 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 10.4 10.6 8.6 -1.2 32.7 34.5 10.6 11.9 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 9.9 10.2 7.6 -1.3 32.0 34.5 10.3 12.0 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 4.9 5.0 4.9 -2.0 23.7 26.9 5.8 7.2 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 10.2 10.5 9.4 -1.2 33.1 34.6 10.5 11.7 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------