***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2015.-22.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 2.9 5.4 8.1 74.1 53.2 43.3 2.6 4.8 7.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.0 5.3 7.6 68.5 50.8 41.9 2.6 5.1 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.0 7.2 8.1 71.7 51.0 42.1 3.4 6.9 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 4.9 9.2 10.0 82.2 55.1 42.5 5.2 8.1 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 4.4 9.4 10.2 85.5 56.0 43.7 4.8 8.0 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 3.1 7.7 12.7 92.0 58.7 45.7 3.0 5.8 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.2 5.5 7.3 67.6 50.5 41.6 2.9 5.4 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 8.7 17.5 12.1 94.4 58.4 45.6 9.1 14.3 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.5 8.6 9.9 84.1 55.7 44.6 4.7 7.5 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 5.7 11.5 11.4 88.4 56.2 44.8 5.7 9.8 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 5.0 10.7 10.2 91.6 58.6 44.4 5.2 8.6 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 4.3 11.3 10.8 97.5 60.9 46.4 4.3 8.0 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 4.1 9.0 11.7 92.1 58.3 44.8 4.0 7.2 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.8 10.1 11.0 78.0 52.6 43.0 5.7 9.4 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.5 7.5 9.5 82.5 56.4 42.4 2.6 5.6 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.8 8.4 10.6 90.9 58.3 43.9 4.0 6.7 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 7.3 5.8 7.2 66.5 51.4 42.7 3.0 5.6 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.7 8.8 12.4 83.2 52.9 43.7 4.8 8.1 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.3 6.2 8.1 71.2 51.8 42.3 2.6 5.7 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 4.7 8.9 14.8 84.8 52.6 42.9 4.8 8.2 12.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.9 7.6 8.6 76.4 53.6 44.0 4.0 6.9 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 7.4 6.1 8.3 72.1 53.0 43.8 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.0 5.8 8.9 75.8 53.3 42.7 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 6.0 10.9 10.4 77.7 51.7 42.7 6.0 10.4 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 2.6 5.5 9.5 75.1 52.4 42.7 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 3.1 7.7 11.5 90.4 57.1 43.2 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.0 5.8 9.1 75.1 53.4 43.5 2.8 5.3 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 2.3 6.3 10.0 85.1 56.8 42.2 2.4 4.9 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 8.4 15.2 13.5 84.1 52.7 43.7 8.3 14.1 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.7 5.7 7.8 70.0 50.8 41.6 2.7 5.6 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------