***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2015.-29.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 3.6 10.0 8.8 99.7 63.3 46.4 3.6 6.7 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 2.7 7.6 8.4 94.9 61.2 43.5 3.0 5.4 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.8 10.0 8.8 95.0 60.7 44.2 3.8 7.2 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 3.9 11.5 11.4 103.5 64.4 46.3 4.0 7.4 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.9 10.1 10.7 96.6 61.4 44.4 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.8 12.0 14.5 111.3 66.1 51.9 3.9 7.3 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.5 7.2 8.3 93.9 61.0 44.1 2.7 5.0 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 7.4 17.3 11.7 97.7 60.6 44.5 7.6 13.0 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.3 9.1 10.2 92.8 59.8 43.4 3.1 6.4 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.2 10.9 11.5 96.6 60.4 44.6 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 4.0 11.0 10.6 96.8 61.0 44.2 3.9 7.7 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 4.5 10.9 10.4 96.4 60.5 43.6 4.7 8.1 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 5.2 12.7 11.7 100.5 61.5 46.8 5.4 9.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 5.7 13.0 10.5 88.1 56.8 42.8 5.6 10.4 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.9 11.1 11.7 110.5 67.5 48.1 2.9 6.0 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.8 10.3 11.1 97.3 61.2 45.9 3.8 7.3 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 2.4 7.9 7.8 91.7 60.2 42.1 2.6 5.4 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.8 12.0 93.7 58.5 44.2 5.1 8.1 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 2.8 8.9 8.5 94.8 61.0 43.3 3.0 6.1 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.9 10.6 13.5 93.0 58.4 45.3 4.7 8.3 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.0 10.0 9.2 94.0 60.7 43.7 3.9 7.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 3.4 9.5 8.3 97.1 62.3 43.7 3.6 6.6 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 3.6 9.8 8.9 93.7 60.1 43.3 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 11.6 11.3 10.5 91.0 58.1 43.2 5.1 8.9 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.2 10.9 10.4 98.5 62.6 46.9 3.9 7.4 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.5 9.6 11.4 101.7 62.5 47.9 3.3 6.4 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.2 9.1 9.6 96.2 61.7 46.6 3.1 6.1 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.4 8.2 11.6 104.8 65.1 46.8 2.3 4.8 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 15.3 14.8 12.4 92.2 57.6 44.4 7.3 12.1 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.7 7.6 8.5 96.1 61.5 44.5 2.7 5.3 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------